In the 1960s, the slogan of German carmaker BMW was Freude am Fahren, or the joy of driving.
But new EU rules approved this week will make the experience of future drivers very different from the petrol-fueled adrenaline rush of decades ago. There are three main forces that will radically change the car of the future — the push to decarbonize driven by growing worries about climate change, efforts to end traffic deaths, and new technology.
One new law, approved Monday, updates carbon dioxide reduction targets for cars and vans up to 2030. That’s going to accelerate carmakers’ efforts to produce more battery-powered vehicles, which will likely be more expensive than those that run on internal combustion engines.
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A second passed the European Parliament on Tuesday with a thumping majority; it mandates a series of life-saving new technologies in vehicles. While the measure is aimed at slashing road deaths, it could upend the business model of performance automakers like BMW.
“The emission limits are too stringent, and of course a lot of the safety features that we support further limit the excitement for the sake of reducing casualties and fatal accidents,” said one German auto manager.
On Wednesday, MEPs voted on new technical standards for connected car communications. Their decision not to object to European Commission plans to proceed with Wi-Fi-based protocols brings self-driving systems a step closer to the real world.
Remaking the car
The spate of lawmaking at the end of the current mandate is part of the EU’s efforts to clean up the transport sector, which accounts for a quarter of Europe’s greenhouse gas emissions, and ramp up action to cut the thousands of avoidable deaths on Europe’s roads each year.
Preliminary figures from the Commission out this month say there were 25,100 road deaths across the bloc in 2018. While that figure is down a fifth on 2010, it was just 1 percent lower than the number of fatalities in 2017. The Commission’s original aim was to halve the 2010 figure by 2020, and it admits “we are off track to reach our target.”
Over 90 percent of road accidents are due to human error — which is why policymakers and lobby groups want cars to carry more technology. That ranges from intelligent speed assistance, which monitors maps and road signs to inform drivers if they’re breaking the speed limit, to emergency braking and lane-keeping systems, as well as ways of detecting drunk or drowsy drivers. The systems will be mandatory from 2022.
“This law is paving the way to save thousands of lives in the coming years,” said Róża Thun, a Polish MEP from the European People’s Party who steered the legislation through Parliament.
That’s forcing carmakers to revamp their sales pitches from speed to safety.
It’s a close fit with Volvo’s traditional reputation as a maker of safe vehicles, and the Swedish carmaker is jumping ahead of the EU by promising that by 2020 its cars will cause zero casualties, and will have a speed limit of 180 kilometers per hour built into new models.
“We want to start a conversation about whether carmakers have the right or maybe even an obligation to install technology in cars that changes their driver’s behavior, to tackle things like speeding, intoxication or distraction,” CEO Håkan Samuelsson said in March.
But other parts of the industry are worried that the experience of driving will be radically different in the future.
“A key concern of ours is that many drivers are simply not aware of these existing technologies — let alone the many new safety features that will be fitted in all new passenger cars in just a few years’ time,” said Erik Jonnaert, head of the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, an industry lobby.
The industry was successful in killing an effort to mandate technology that prevents cars from speeding, which is why the rules will only ensure cars give warnings that can be overridden.
“We do not introduce a speed limiter, but an intelligent system that will make drivers fully aware when they are speeding,” Thun said.
A new approach
The changes inside the car mirror those happening on the road. Photo radars are ubiquitous in many countries, and speed limits are coming down; France recently dropped the limit on smaller roads to 80 kilometers an hour from 90 kph, and Germany is considering limits on its iconic Autobahns. Cities from Paris and London to Brussels and Munich are mulling ways to prevent older and more polluting cars from driving on their streets.
It’s all happening as car use undergoes a revolution. Apps like Uber aim to make owning a car optional, while many young people aren’t even bothering to get driver’s licenses. The Commission projects that by 2030 a quarter of the bloc’s drivers will be over 65.
While they may feel nostalgia for the free-spirited era of the 1960s, many others won’t.
“It’s all rational over emotion,” the German auto manager said of the policy shift.