Poll: Biden holds double-digit lead over 2020 Democratic rivals

Former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenHillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police Trump finalizing executive order calling on police to use ‘force with compassion’ The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden campaign goes on offensive against Facebook MORE leads the field of Democratic presidential hopefuls by double digits a month ahead of the Iowa caucuses, according to a Harvard CAPS/Harris poll released exclusively to The Hill.

The poll shows Biden registering 30 percent support among Democrats nationally. In a relatively distant second place is Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersThe Hill’s 12:30 Report: Milley apologizes for church photo-op Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness MORE (I-Vt.), who notched 17 percent in the survey.

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Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenWarren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases OVERNIGHT DEFENSE: Joint Chiefs chairman says he regrets participating in Trump photo-op | GOP senators back Joint Chiefs chairman who voiced regret over Trump photo-op | Senate panel approves 0B defense policy bill Trump on collision course with Congress over bases with Confederate names MORE (D-Mass.) is lingering in the No. 3 spot with 12 percent support. No other candidate registered double-digit support. Former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete ButtigiegPete ButtigiegScaled-back Pride Month poses challenges for fundraising, outreach Biden hopes to pick VP by Aug. 1 It’s as if a Trump operative infiltrated the Democratic primary process MORE came in fourth place at 7 percent, while former tech executive Andrew YangAndrew YangGeorge Floyd protests show corporations must support racial and economic equality Andrew Yang discusses his universal basic income pilot program Andrew Yang on the George Floyd protests in Minneapolis MORE notched 3 percent support.

“Biden continues to be the front-runner but the surprise is really the growth of Sanders while Warren has shrunk,” said Mark PennMark PennThe Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden leads Trump by 6 points in new poll Biden leads Trump by 6 points as voters sour on pandemic response: poll Poll: Two-thirds of voters say the economy is on the wrong track MORE, the co-director of the Harvard CAPS/Harris poll. “Just a few months ago this was a Warren race — today it’s more likely to come down to Biden vs. Sanders.”

The poll shows little change from a previous Harvard CAPS/Harris survey conducted in late November that put Biden at 29 percent, Sanders at 16 percent, Warren at 13 percent and Buttigieg at 8 percent, suggesting that the state of the race may be steadying even before the first votes are cast next month.

Still, recent polls in early primary and caucus states show a more fluid race.

An Emerson College survey of likely Iowa Democratic caucusgoers released last month showed Biden and Sanders in a statistical tie for first place, with 23 percent and 22 percent support, respectively.

And a WBUR-MassINC poll of New Hampshire Democrats from December showed Buttigieg and Biden knotted at the top with 18 percent and 17 percent, respectively. Sanders wasn’t far behind in that survey, with 15 percent support.

The Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll survey was conducted online within the U.S. among a representative sample of 780 registered Democratic voters between Dec. 27-29 by the Harris Poll.

Results were weighted for age within gender, region, race/ethnicity, marital status, household size, income, employment, education, political party, and political ideology where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.