The Cook Political Report, a top nonpartisan election handicapper, shifted nine House races to more favorable for Democrats in this year’s midterm elections.
The new rating changes released on Friday come a few days after Pennsylvania’s nationally watched House special election, where Democrats will likely have a huge upset in a district that President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE won by nearly 20 points in 2016.
Democrat Conor Lamb declared victory and leads Republican state Rep. Rick Saccone by 627 votes, but some media outlets have yet to call the race.
ADVERTISEMENTSome of the most notable rating changes include three races that have shifted from “lean Republican” to “toss-up”: the seats held by GOP Reps. Leonard LanceLeonard LanceGun debate to shape 2020 races GOP fears Trump backlash in suburbs Bottom Line MORE (N.J.), Brian FitzpatrickBrian K. FitzpatrickBipartisan group demands House prioritize communities of color in coronavirus relief bill Fitzpatrick to face Democrat Christina Finello in key Pennsylvania House race Key races to watch in Tuesday’s primaries MORE (Pa.) and Keith RothfusKeith James RothfusLobbying world Conor Lamb gets 2020 challenger touted by Trump The 31 Trump districts that will determine the next House majority MORE (Pa.).
Fitzpatrick’s and Rothfus’s seats became more favorable for Democrats after Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court redrew the state’s congressional map in its gerrymandering case. While Republicans are challenging the new lines, they’re still likely to go into effect for the midterms.
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Following Tuesday’s likely victory, Lamb is looking to switch districts and is preparing a run for Rothfus’s seat. The seat Lamb is poised to win will not exist under the new map, and the area will be drawn into a new, open-seat district that is even more favorable territory for Republicans.
Other notable rating changes include the shift from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican” for Rep. Steve PearceStevan (Steve) Edward PearceFive Latinas who could be Biden’s running mate New Mexico Dems brace for crowded race to succeed Udall The 31 Trump districts that will determine the next House majority MORE’s (R-N.M.) open seat and the special election to fill the seat vacated by ex-Rep. Pat TiberiPatrick (Pat) Joseph TiberiOhio New Members 2019 Many authors of GOP tax law will not be returning to Congress GOP Rep. Balderson holds onto seat in Ohio MORE (R-Ohio). Rep. Ami BeraAmerish (Ami) Babulal BeraThe Hill’s Coronavirus Report: Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas says country needs to rethink what ‘policing’ means; US cases surpass 2 million with no end to pandemic in sight Exclusive investigation on the coronavirus pandemic: Where was Congress? The Hill’s Coronavirus Report: David Miliband says world won’t be safe until poor nations get more aid; Cuomo rips WHO MORE’s (D-Calif.) seat, which is a frequent GOP target, has also shifted from lean Democrat to likely Democrat.
There are also several seats that were already considered safe for Democrats that have tilted even more in their direction, including the shift from “likely Democrat” to “solid Democrat” in the seats held by Rep. Salud CarbajalSalud CarbajalFederal employees push for COVID-19 protections in ‘dangerous’ workplaces Hispanic Caucus demands protections for agricultural workers in next coronavirus bill Activists, analysts demand Congress consider immigrants in coronavirus package MORE (D-Calif.), Charlie CristCharles (Charlie) Joseph CristGOP sees groundswell of women running in House races The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden’s Tampa rally hits digital snags Biden rise calms Democratic jitters MORE (D-Fla.) and Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.).
Only one rating change favors Republicans due to the new maps in Pennsylvania: the seat that will likely be held by Lamb through the end of year. It will now shift from “toss-up” to “likely Republican.” Saccone has been circulating petitions to run in the new district.