THE LAST TIME an All-Ireland club football title was on offer, Kieran Fitzgerald was immersed in the heat of the action.
That was back in January 2020, his last act as a Corofin player was a winning one, he signed off on a joyous note as the north Galway club football dynasty completed three-in-a-row.
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It was their fourth national crown in six seasons but Fitzgerald had experienced the flipside when county and provincial titles could not translate into the greatest club prize of all.
In that 2020 decider they prevailed after extra-time in a gruelling battle with Kilcoo.
The Down club have returned to that final stage next Saturday, when they pit themselves against Kilmacud Crokes, and aim to complete a mission they have been on.
Since 2009, Kilcoo have won ten county titles and Ulster silverware has finally arrived in 2019 and 2021.
They just need an All-Ireland to complete the set and Fitzgerald can relate to the scenario where the pursuit of that trophy consumes a club.
“We were in that position down through the years where we were winning county championships and winning Connacht which was great but eventually you want to get to the next step and Kilcoo are at that now. They have won in Down, two in a row in Ulster and they nearly got there two years ago against us. I have no doubt that they are consumed by the pursuit of that All-Ireland championship.
“They play like guys who are thinking like that and from my experience from playing against them, they were like men possessed to get over that line. I can totally appreciate where they are coming from and in many respects for a rural club like that – like we were in Corofin – to get over that line you nearly have to be 24/7 thinking about it.”
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Kilcoo’s style of football is well-defined and while Corofin faced an array of contenders in their various seasons playing on the Galway, Connacht and All-Ireland stages, Fitzgerald rates that 2020 battle as ‘one of the toughest games of club football’ he encountered.
“I’m really interested in it. There are loads of different ways of winning and that was what worked for us. What works for Kilcoo is a different form of football, that’s what they believe in, and best of luck to them. They nearly won it two years ago against us and we really struggled with that.
“They’re tough opposition, they made it so difficult for us, they were one of the toughest, most aggressive teams I’ve ever played against, and I mean that as a compliment.
“They made us earn that and it was one of the toughest games of club football I’ve ever played in. They nearly did it and I fancy them this weekend.
“Tackling, work rate, their organisation, their discipline in the defensive structure, the turnovers, the way they tackled, they led you up alleys, there’s a method to their defence, they encourage you to go up avenues then they turn you over and break.
Kilcoo manager Mickey Moran.
Source: Ken Sutton/INPHO
“They have very talented forwards and when they break they break well, wing-backs like the Branagans break at speed, Johnson up front. Mickey Moran has them well tuned and it’s going to be a very interesting final.
“They are going to have a massive test against Kilmacud Crokes, even though they are minus Paul Mannion. They are a fine outfit as well so it will be an intriguing contest, it will be low-scoring possibly and tight but I do fancy Kilcoo.”
Fitzgerald brought a decorated playing career to a close after that 2020 club final, moving into a role as part of the Corofin management team for the past two seasons, something which aided his transition.
“I had my decision made to retire coming up to the Kilcoo All-Ireland final which seems so long ago now. Then obviously Covid hit and there was no football at all, so everybody wasn’t playing, so it wasn’t only me. It was great to play for years under Kevin O’Brien but probably didn’t have a full realisation of the extent of the work those guys were doing behind the scenes to keep the Corofin machine going.
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“It was an eye opener for me to cross to the other side and see how that worked and obviously I was happy to play a small part in it.”
The theme of change in Corofin’s fortunes has been created by new county champions in Galway for the past two seasons in Moycullen and Mountbellew-Moylough.
Going into 2022 they will have a new manager at the helm in Kevin Johnson after Kevin O’Brien brought his hugely successful spell to a close late last year.
Kieran Fitzgerald celebrating the 2019 All-Ireland final win with Kevin O’Brien and Ciaran McGrath.
Source: Tommy Dickson/INPHO
After three All-Ireland club title wins as a boss, Fitzgerald feels O’Brien has the capability to move into inter-county management in the future if he desires.
“I don’t know what his ambitions are but he is very well capable of it. He is a hugely organised guy, very considerate and a great planner. He is so structured and organised, a great man manager.
“He has all the attributes to be an inter-county manager if that is the route he wants to go down but I am not sure exactly what his ambitions are. He is a super manager, he knows how players tick and I would not be surprised if he did go down that route.”
Kieran Fitzgerald’s Laochra Gael episode airs on TG4 this week on Thursday night at 9.30pm
WE’VE MOVED PAST the halfway point of the 2022 GAA football league as the action enters a decisive phase.
Eight teams are still awaiting their first win, frustrated in their four games to date and hoping for better luck as Round 5 fixtures await this weekend.
But who is feeling the greatest pressure as fears of relegation start to intensify?
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Division 1
Monaghan
The last day out against Kerry was Monaghan’s most dispiriting performance of the campaign, undone by the scoring magic of David Clifford and Sean O’Shea. Yet apart from that they have been highly competitive, and while that run has yielded no wins, they have a pair of points in the bag from draws against Tyrone and Armagh, along with a narrow defeat to Mayo.
They face into a difficult trip to Ballybofey on Sunday against a Donegal team buoyed by their recent win over Tyrone. The Round 6 game the following week against Kildare, a meeting of 6th and 7th currently in the table, may be the crucial one before they face Dublin on the last day. A long-running operator in the top tier, last year proved Monaghan have the wherewithal to escape from a tight spot.
Conor McManus.
Source: Ben Brady/INPHO
Dublin
The most high-profile of all the eigth sides still without a win in this spring’s football league. Having shared last year’s title and collected the silverware five times between 2013 and 2018, being rooted to the bottom of the table is a stunning scenario for Dublin to now face. It’s all the more striking because they are the only team in the country to have lost all four of their games to date.
The stakes are high as Dublin head into their final set of matches. Defeat on Sunday in Omagh could send them down, if Kildare have already won Saturday night in Armagh. Injuries have hurt their squad and there was improvements in their play last time out against Kildare, but it’s still a tough task to mount a rescue operation as Tyrone, Donegal and Monaghan await.
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A dejected Dean Rock.
Source: James Crombie/INPHO
Division 2
Meath
Last June saw Meath lose out by three points to Kildare in a promotion play-off with Division 1 football the sizeable prize on offer. This time around it’s been a tougher season as they have travelled in the opposite direction in the second tier. They endured a horrible start, hit by the weather and a Galway onslaught in Salthill, before succumbing to Roscommon.
Meath’s last two outings have produced draws against Down and Offaly. Given those were against relegation rivals, the failure to win even one of those could be costly, albeit they were grateful for a last-gasp goal to save themselves in Tullamore. Sunday’s game against Cork looks highly significant, they have Clare and then high-flying Derry to come after that.
Cork
In a similar state to Meath as relegation concerns start to grow for Cork, and the potential knock-on impact of missing out on competing for the Sam Maguire in 2022. They have one point less than the Royals, a draw garnered against Clare their only positive outcome to date. There is vital context in their fixture list, Cork’s three losses to date have been against the three teams that will fight it out for promotion – Derry, Galway and Roscommon.
So the schedule looks kinder on paper from hereon in as they face fellow basement scrappers in Meath, Down and Offaly. But the pressure to get points on the board increases for new manager Keith Ricken, a county that finished 2021 by getting walloped by Kerry, have not seen 2022 begin in a more positive fashion.
Action from the recent Cork-Derry game.
Source: Lorcan Doherty/INPHO
Down
A draw with Meath is the only bright spot in the results record to date for Down. Similar to Cork, there is a source of comfort in that their defeats have been at the hands of this division’s dominant trio. Thus their next two games against Offaly and Cork, should in theory be less daunting.
The county did produce the All-Ireland club kingpins last month, but it’s not yet clear how many Kilcoo players will be available to fire Down’s charge. A critical eight-day period commences this Saturday night, having home advantage is a help against Offaly and the sense is they must win in Newry.
Offaly
After making the leap from Division 3 last year, Offaly will be aiming to avoid a swift return to that sector. They suffered two convincing losses to Clare and Derry to begin with, but their displays since were far more heartening against Meath and Galway. The issue is neither resulted in a victory, caught in sickening fashion by a late goal from Meath and ending four points in arrears in Salthill last Sunday, despite amassing 3-10.
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Down on Saturday night is a critical encounter, then they travel to Roscommon and host Cork in their last game. At present they are bottom of the table but only on scoring difference as Cork and Down are also on a point each. Check out the scoring difference to be reminded of how tight it is – Cork (-23), Down (-24) and Offaly (-25).
Offaly boss John Maughan.
Source: Bryan Keane/INPHO
Division 3
Wicklow
Last June, Wicklow pulled off a shock in their relegation play-off, two points superior against the then Ulster title holders Cavan. That preserved their status in Division 3 but their manager that day, Davy Burke, departed last August and his successor Colin Kelly moved on last week ‘due to a change in work commitments’. This week saw Alan Costello and Gary Duffy both installed as joint managers for the remainder of the season.
That’s plenty turbulence off the pitch and on it they have sustained three losses at the hands of Westmeath, Antrim and Limerick to date. Those defeats have been by margins ranging from four to six points, so the gap is not vast, and they did draw with Fermanagh. But they need to prevent themselves getting cut adrift. The next two games are critical as they entertain Laois, who are sixth, this Sunday, and then travel to Longford, who are seventh, on Sunday week.
Waterford are the only side in this winless group, that do at least have the comfort that relegation will not come into play. Still an upturn in results would be something their camp would appreciate before Division 4 concludes. They fought hard in their first two games to draw with Tipperary and lost by a single point to London, before defeats to Carlow and Leitrim ensued.
They are away to Wexford this weekend and then Ephie Fitzgerald’s charges have two challenging assignments before they wrap up, at home to Sligo and away to Cavan.
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At the second and final 2020 presidential debate on Thursday, when asked by President Donald Trump if he would “close down the oil industry,” former Vice President Joe Biden said that he intends to “transition away from the oil industry, yes.” Republicans are working furiously to make this supposed admission into a scandal, hoping it will get Biden in hot water with oil-state Dems and swing voters and sow division in the party. The right sees energy as a key wedge issue as the election approaches.
Trump himself put it in the most dramatic terms:
After the last debate, Republicans hoped Biden’s refusal to ban fracking would get him in trouble with the climate left. That didn’t go anywhere, and my guess is that this gambit won’t either. So far, a few oil-state Dems have distanced themselves, oil companies have expressed “concern, not alarm,” and most everyone else seems distracted by a virus that is setting new case records and infecting White House staff.
However the politics play out in this instance, it’s important to consider the underlying dynamic of these recent energy disputes. It’s an extremely familiar dynamic that finally seems, in fits and starts, to be working in Democrats’ favor.
Let’s begin with a little armchair political science.
Americans want reform as long as it doesn’t negatively affect them
Social science suggests that most people, even most politically active people, don’t have particularly well-considered or coherent views on public policy issues. They vote based on identities and social affinities. Their opinions on issues are easily swayed by elite cues or the phrasing of poll questions.
In my experience, the one rule that reliably governs public issue polling is that the public likes things that sound good and doesn’t like things that sound bad.
If you poll a health care system that covers everything, with no copays and free choice of doctors, it does well. If you poll tax increases to pay for other people’s health care, it does poorly.
If you poll cleaner energy or less pollution, it does well. If you poll gasoline prices rising and fossil fuel workers losing jobs, it does poorly.
When polled on individual progressive policy goals, Americans tend to respond positively. Universal health care and clean energy sound good. When polled on ideological abstractions like “taxes” and “big government,” they tend to respond negatively. Giving up money to some distant bureaucracy sounds bad.
This is why there’s an unending argument over whether America is or isn’t a “center-right nation” — it depends on how you ask America. More or less everyone wants to improve the collective welfare, but not at their own expense. Depending on how they are phrased, these kinds of questions don’t so much uncover preexisting opinions as they guide and shape opinion formation. Trigger thoughts of things getting better, you’ll get good poll results; trigger thoughts of sacrifice, privation, or unfair burdens, you’ll get bad poll results.
Democratic politics isn’t much different. Reformers pushing for change guide attention to the collective good that will come of it. Reactionaries pushing against change guide attention to the risks and dangers.
These are not, unfortunately, parallel endeavors. Asking people to imagine an alternative future calls upon their thinking and imagination — their frontal cortex. Asking people to fear change calls upon something much deeper and older, their brainstem sense that it’s a dangerous world, they’re lucky to have what they have, and any disruption threatens it. The latter, when invoked, tends to drown out the former. That’s why progressive change is so difficult to muster and so easy to reverse.
But that’s the game in a democracy: changes that can improve collective circumstances versus the fear of personal loss.
Making the clean energy transition seem scary
This brings us back to Biden and energy. The core Republican approach, which they understand at a gut level even if there is no particular strategic intelligence at work in the Trump era, is to make change seem scary. They need to make Biden’s climate plan seem abrupt, alien, and threatening. That’s why they have resolutely ignored all the actual policies involved in the Green New Deal and instead made it a boogeyman, a repository for every conservative fear. They’re going to take your hamburgers and your SUV!
That’s why Republicans are so delighted to make a fracking ban — a policy that no president can pass and no Congress would pass — the center of discussion. And that’s why they are delighted when Biden says he will transition away from oil. These changes sound sudden and disruptive; they draw attention to what will be lost, not to what will take its place. They define a playing field favorable to Republicans.
There’s an element of play-acting to all this. For all the hue and cry about his gaffes, Biden’s climate policies are articulated quite clearly on his website. (No manned outpost on the moon, sadly.) He plans to ramp up clean energy and electrification while ensuring that affected communities, including fossil fuel communities, are taken care of through investments in infrastructure, clean energy projects, education, job transition, and other kinds of assistance.
Over time, clean energy will come to dominate the electricity sector (where Biden has targeted 100 percent net-zero by 2035) and from there it will expand to the rest of the economy (where Biden has targeted 100 percent net-zero by 2050). By 2035, coal will disappear, and by 2050, the US oil and gas sector will radically shrink. It’s just carbon math.
Some fossil fuels may survive at the margins to fill in the gaps in large electricity systems, attached to carbon capture and storage systems, or for some industrial applications or plastics. And it may be that some oil and gas companies are successful at pivoting away from their core products to clean energy (ahem, geothermal).
But the oil and gas industry as Americans know it, as a major source of jobs and profits, is going away in coming decades. It has to — it produces lots of carbon and carbon is frying the planet. Many oil and gas companies, especially in Europe, have acknowledged this inescapable reality and begun to transform themselves.
So when Biden says his plan will have the US “transition away from the oil industry,” he’s not saying something radical, unexpected, or mysterious. Any serious climate plan must do the same. It wouldn’t be a climate plan if it didn’t (no matter how many trees it planted).
But Biden was also being entirely accurate when he said to reporters later, “we’re not getting rid of fossil fuels for a long time.” And he was being entirely accurate when he said that he will not ban fracking.
These are not contradictory comments. The latter are not “walking back” the former, despite what reporters (goosed on by Republicans) project onto them. It’s not that hard to understand: Biden’s plan will gradually transition the US economy to clean energy, and while it’s happening, ensure that those who are negatively impacted receive assistance and new employment opportunities. Justice — for fossil fuel workers and other vulnerable communities — is at the heart of the new Democratic consensus on climate policy.
Biden needs room to maneuver
When speaking to the left, Biden emphasizes the transition away from fossil fuels to clean energy, and the environmental benefits; when speaking to audiences that contain persuadable voters in swing states (some of whom work in, or have family members who work in, fossil fuels), he emphasizes the gradual, carefully staged nature of the transition, and the economic/jobs benefits.
But in all cases, he’s referring to the same plan — which is, again, right there on his website.
As usual, the media is playing along with Republican efforts to sow confusion about this, playing on Biden’s penchant for garbling his messaging, as with this CNN “fact-check” that pretends Biden’s written plan carries no more weight than one infelicitous phrase in a debate.
Republicans will lie about Biden’s plan and the mainstream media will search for something they can ding Biden for, to “balance” all the negative coverage Trump attracts — but Democrats would be goofy to play along.
Instead of distancing themselves, oil-state Democrats could take the opportunity to defend the massive infrastructure and job investments contained in the plan, targeted at rural, poor, and fossil fuel communities. They could tell their constituents the truth about the long-term viability of fossil fuels, unlike Republicans in Appalachia and Wyoming, who have lied to their constituents about it until their economies have run headlong into disaster.
As for the left, as usual, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is taking the smart line:
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She is positioning herself to the left of Biden on fracking, a signal to moderates that Biden has not been “captured by the left,” but she’s also emphasizing the need to get him elected, a signal to the left that it’s important to get on board.
AOC understands what are, to my mind, the two lessons progressive climate reformers can draw from this episode.
The broad lesson is that making change is often less about convincing people that good goals are good — Americans are already convinced that fighting climate change and expanding clean energy are good — than it is about convincing them that change won’t leave them behind, that they have a place and a stake in it.
In practical terms, that might mean less talk about the Earth and children and more about industrial policy and what it can do to foster specific industries that will employ specific people in specific regions of the country. It means talking about how a transition to clean energy will create well-paying jobs in every US zip code and save every US homeowner between $1,000 and $2,000 a year. It means less talk about things that will be banned or taken away and more about things that will be created or improved. The Green New Deal was conceived, in part, to push just such a shift in emphasis, to envision climate policy as a generative, not merely oppositional, project.
Climate reformers have the wind at their back. There’s never been a broader consensus that climate change is dangerous and action is needed. What remains is painting a richer picture of the world that action can help create.
In the meantime, the more specific lesson for climate advocates is that, in the home stretch of this election, Biden needs room to maneuver. His election depends on the whims of a few marginal voters in a few swing states, some of them living in places where fossil fuel production has unusually high salience. He needs votes from union households that do some of the very work he’s talking about phasing out.
He needs to reassure them that the clean energy transition will not be abrupt and destructive; nothing will be banned or shut down overnight. It will unfold gradually, and as it does, new investments will reach their communities and new industries will rise to make use of their skills.
The transition will not come at their expense or leave them behind. They have a place in it.
This inclusiveness is a foundational part of Biden’s plan and, more broadly, core to the spirit of the Green New Deal and the recent Democratic alignment on climate policy. It would immeasurably aid public understanding if more people explained that vision of a managed, inclusive transition and fewer nitpicked Biden’s latest attempt to articulate it.
White House chief medical adviser Anthony Fauci said he will not go into restaurants or movie theaters, even though he’s vaccinated. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says vaccinated people should continue masking up indoors and avoiding large gatherings. News outlets have reported on “breakthrough infections” of Covid-19 among the fully vaccinated.
All of this can make it seem like getting vaccinated may not be enough to liberate people from the fear of getting sick and the precautions they’ve taken to avoid the coronavirus in the past year. So I posed a question to experts I’ve talked to throughout the pandemic about Covid-related precautions: How worried are you about your personal safety after getting vaccinated?
They were nearly unanimous in their response: They’re no longer worried much, if at all, about their personal risk of getting Covid-19. Several spoke of going into restaurants and movie theaters now that they’re vaccinated, socializing with friends and family, and having older relatives visit for extended periods.
“I’m not particularly worried about getting ill myself,” Tara Smith, an epidemiologist at Kent State University, told me. “I know that if I do somehow end up infected, my chances of developing serious symptoms are low.”
Instead, experts said they mostly remain cautious to protect others who aren’t yet vaccinated. The vaccines are extremely effective — dramatically cutting the risk of any symptoms, and driving the risk of hospitalization and death to nearly zero. There’s some evidence that these vaccines also reduce the risk of transmission, but we’re still learning how much they prevent someone who is vaccinated from infecting another person. When experts are still taking precautions, it’s this concern for others that primarily drives them.
But, over time, they see even those concerns for others becoming less necessary, too.
“It’s about protecting others. Vaccination makes me essentially safe,” William Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard University, told me. “There’s accumulating evidence, too, that breakthrough cases are less likely to transmit (they have lower viral loads), so by being vaccinated I’m already helping protect others. But I’m also going to continue with behaviors consistent with lower contact rates in the community overall. As more and more are protected through vaccination, I’ll feel less and less of a need for that.”
As vaccination rates climb and daily new cases and deaths drop, experts said that people should feel more comfortable easing up on precautions, shifting the world back to the pre-pandemic days. That might happen sooner than you think — Israel’s experience suggests that cases could start to sustainably plummet once about 60 percent of the population is vaccinated, a point that could be just a month or two away in the US. And with 46 percent of Americans getting one dose so far, cases in the US have already started to decline.
As more of the population gets the vaccine, it’s prudent to keep masking and avoiding large gatherings, and for people who’ve been vaccinated to share their stories and encourage their friends and family to get vaccinated, too. But that’s not because those who are vaccinated are in any trouble. Even with the spread of the variants, the consensus among experts is that vaccinated people shouldn’t worry much about their own risk of Covid-19.
The vaccines really are that good for your personal safety
The clinical and real-world evidence for the vaccines is now pretty clear: They are extremely effective at protecting a person from Covid-19.
The clinical trials put the two-shot Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines’ efficacy rates at 95-plus percent and the one-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine’s at more than 70 percent. All three vaccines also drove the risk of hospitalization and death to nearly zero.
The real-world evidence has backed this up. In Israel, the country with the most advanced vaccination campaign, the data shows that the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has been more than 90 percent effective at preventing infections, with even higher rates of blocking symptomatic disease, hospitalization, and death. You can see this in the country’s overall statistics: After Israel almost fully reopened its economy in March, once the majority of the population had at least one dose, daily new Covid-19 cases fell by more than 95 percent. And daily deaths are now in the single digits and, at times, zero.
The research also shows the vaccines are effective against the coronavirus variants that have been discovered so far. While some variants seem better able to get around immunity, the vaccines are so powerful that they still by and large overwhelm and defeat the variants in the end.
It’s this evidence that’s made experts confident the vaccines let them stop worrying about their own Covid-19 risk. “I am fully vaccinated and have resumed normal activities,” Monica Gandhi, an infectious diseases doctor at the University of California San Francisco, told me. “I have gone indoor dining, went to my first movie theater, and would go to a bar if there was an opportunity!”
The diminished concern applies to others who are vaccinated, too. Smith spoke of having her fully vaccinated in-laws visit this coming weekend — “the first time we’ve seen them in person since December 2019.”
There have been some breakthrough Covid-19 cases among those who are vaccinated. But they tend to be milder infections, less likely to transmit, and far from common. “This is less than 0.01 percent of the vaccinated,” Akiko Iwasaki, an immunologist at the Yale School of Medicine, told me, citing CDC data. “So extremely rare!”
To the extent that some experts are still playing it safe for themselves, they cited an abundance of caution — and a lack of interest in certain activities.
“I go out to eat, but still only outdoors. I want to be fully relaxed for a restaurant dining experience. For me, with people I don’t know eating with masks off, I feel safest outside,” Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo, an epidemiologist at UC San Francisco, told me. “I haven’t been to bars, concerts, theaters, but that probably reflects the fact that I’m a rather boring person.”
Some acknowledged that their continuing caution was a habit that needed to be broken: After a year of worrying about the virus, it takes a bit of time to go back to a pre-pandemic mentality. “I am not too concerned about my own safety,” Jorge Salinas, an epidemiologist at the University of Iowa, told me. “I think it is mostly a matter of habits. I think it is okay to go back to restaurants but have continued getting takeout. But whoever is vaccinated and feels ready, I think it is safe for them to do so in most places.”
Continuing precautions are really about protecting others
The one reason experts consistently cited for continued precautions: the need to protect those who are unvaccinated. “We’ll probably be holding off on any indoors activities for now, since we have an unvaccinated 7-year-old at home,” Smith said. “The risk is low for us to catch and transmit anything to him, but after all this time avoiding indoor venues and being careful, a movie theater or dinner at a restaurant just doesn’t seem worth it when we still have great options with home theater and takeout meals. Once everyone is vaccinated, those will be back in our rotation.”
Some recent research found that the vaccines can reduce the chances of a vaccinated person spreading the virus to others. The CDC summarized one such real-world study for the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, showing the vaccines stop not just symptoms but overall infections and, therefore, transmission:
Results showed that following the second dose of vaccine (the recommended number of doses), risk of infection was reduced by 90 percent two or more weeks after vaccination. Following a single dose of either vaccine, the participants’ risk of infection with SARS-CoV-2 was reduced by 80 percent two or more weeks after vaccination.
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But in the typically cautious worlds of science and public health, experts want to see a bit more research and data before they declare that vaccinated people can throw out their masks and gather in large numbers indoors. (Some experts also said they may continue masking and avoiding crowded indoor spaces during flu season, after such measures seemed to crush the flu in the past year.)
Even if the vaccine proves to reduce transmission, it would still be safer for every person who can get vaccinated to get the shot. And as more people get their shots, it’s also safer to stick to some precautions for their sake.
To that end, experts recommended watching a few figures going forward: the vaccination rate, and daily new cases or hospitalizations. As vaccination rates go up and surpass 50 or 60 percent at a local level, a vaccinated person can feel much more confident going out without worrying about potentially infecting others. And as cases and hospitalizations go down, a vaccinated person can also have confidence that there’s not much virus out there — further shrinking their chances of getting infected and spreading it.
In the meantime, those who are already vaccinated can help speed up the process by encouraging their friends, family, and peers to get the shot. Surveys consistently show that around 1 in 3 unvaccinated people are waiting for others around them to get vaccinated first before they do so. Sharing vaccination stories, then, could give people the push they need.
“I’m very cognizant that while I’m vaccinated, many still are not,” Saskia Popescu, an epidemiologist at George Mason University, told me. “So I’m still vigilant in wearing my mask while out in public running errands, or when interacting with servers [and] other patrons if I go to an outdoor restaurant, even though I’m not really concerned for my own risk of getting sick.”
Every year, thousands of whales strand — meaning that they wind up trapped on beaches or in shallow waters — and it’s really hard to figure out why.
It’s not for lack of trying. Teams of forensic researchers investigate stranded whales, studying organs, analyzing body parts with CT scanners, digging through stomach contents, and checking skin for scarring. But these meticulous whale detectives still often don’t find any answers.
“We can only about 50 percent of the time, if that much, give you a solid answer of why that animal died and why it’s stranded,” says Darlene Ketten, a marine biologist at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution who refers to her work as “CSI: The Beach.”
One reason it’s hard to figure out how whales die is that scientists don’t know that much about how they live, Ketten explains on the latest episode of Unexplainable, Vox’s podcast about mysteries in science. They range widely across the planet and dive deeply. There are many things about their complicated bodies we don’t yet understand. And these researchers are often working with whale carcasses that have been decaying for days, which can distort the evidence left behind.
Some beached whales are even more difficult to study because they’re really, really old. In 2011, Nick Pyenson, the curator of fossil marine mammals at the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History, took on a cold case that had gone unsolved for a long time — seven to nine million years, to be precise.
Pyenson, who is also the author of Spying on Whales, was on a research trip in the Atacama Desert in Chile, a beautiful expanse of rock and sand that’s flecked with orange, beige, and purple because of the presence of iron and other minerals. He was there to research the origins of a nearby ocean current — but along the way, he got distracted.
“There’s all these whale skeletons by the side of this hill,” Pyenson says one of his colleagues, Mario Suarez, told him one day. “You need to check it out! It’s amazing!”
The hill was known locally as “Cerro Ballena,” or “Whale Hill,” because fossilized whale bones had been found there in the past. Bulldozers had just come through to cut a path for a new highway, and they exposed more skeletons. When Pyenson went to look, he was completely overwhelmed.
“It was whale skeleton after whale skeleton after whale skeleton, complete from nose to tail. Some of them stretched out almost like snow angels the kids make,” Pyenson recalls. “It’s as if they had died and their skeletons were not disturbed.”
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This was almost unheard of: full, beautifully preserved skeletons, stretching out for 40 feet in every direction. “In the field, you spend a lot of time searching, and often times you just find a boulder with a few bits of bone — and that is a good day,” Pyenson says. “A really good day is finding more than just a few bits of bone, or a partial skeleton. If you find a head with that skeleton, that’s a home run.”
Once he’d processed what he was seeing, Pyenson realized that he was going to have to start a whole new research project to figure out what exactly had happened to these whales. It seemed like an ancient stranding — possibly one of the best-preserved ones — but it wasn’t going to be easy to solve. There were no tissues to study, so he couldn’t analyze organs or skin, as Ketten and her fellow researchers do with modern whales. Fossilization also changes the minerals in the bones, and rock layers compress them into new shapes, so the bones were somewhat unreliable witnesses.
Pyenson and his colleagues used 3D-scanning technology to make models of the whale skeletons to study them back home. They carefully analyzed the soil and layout of the surrounding area, and finally landed on three big clues.
First, the skeletons were entangledin each other and almost entirely unscavenged, which suggested that these animals had died suddenly. Second, there were many species at this ancient graveyard — whales, but also other adult and juvenile animals, which told Pyenson that the die-off was not limited to whales.
The third big clue came from a close study of the local geology, which suggested these creatures had died in four separate events over the course of around 10,000 years. So whatever was killing the whales had happened several times. That essentially ruled out an infrequent natural disaster like a volcanic eruption.
Pyenson began thinking about cyclical changes to the ocean that could kill off lots of different animals, and fast. “I started moving towards the idea of harmful algal blooms being a cause,” he says. Algal blooms, or red tides, are troublesome to this day. They occur when populations of microorganisms explode in a body of water — sometimes when agricultural runoff floods a lake or ocean with nutrients like nitrogen. These tiny organisms can produce toxins that can prove very deadly, very quickly.
Pyenson theorized that runoff from mineral-rich surrounding areas — minerals that still lend the sands of the Atacama their vibrant colors — could have periodically caused algal blooms in the ocean that once covered this area. But he wanted evidence that would hold up in the court of scientific opinion.
If this were a fresh crime scene, he could have rooted around in the whale’s guts, found a bunch of toxins, and caught the red tide red-handed. But because his crime scene was millions of years old, he could only study his photographic models instead. Those kept showing that the whale skeletons were surrounded by rings of orange sediment — mats of iron oxide, which Pyenson interprets as possible algae in the fossil record. “I kept on wondering, is this the algae of death?” Pyenson says with a laugh.
His team brought samples of this orange sediment back to the US and examined them under an electron microscope. The images included tiny spheres that were the right size to be an algae of death, Pyenson says, but all their distinguishing features had been wiped away by millions of years.
“We are so close to a smoking gun,” he says. “It’s tantalizing. But that’s how a lot of historical science goes. You struggle with it and you want to get at the answer. But sometimes the evidence you’re able to find to answer your questions is not entirely satisfying.”
Jeremy Goldbogen, a marine biologist at Stanford University, read Pyenson’s paper in 2014 and told the journal Science that the positions of the various skeletons seemed consistent with a stranding.
David Caron, who has researched algal blooms at the University of Southern California, was also asked about Pyenson’s research in 2014 and told National Geographic that present-day algal blooms also wipe out a wide range of marine animals. “There’s certainly thousands of sea lion deaths, dozens to hundreds of dolphins, untold hundreds of pelicans that all have been wiped out with the same toxic event,” he told the magazine.
According to Pyenson, these parallels between the past and the present flow in both directions. “I find studying past worlds to be a kind of time travel,” he says. “You get to go these past worlds that almost seem like alien worlds.”
Even if he’s never able to definitively pinpoint what happened at Cerro Ballena, Pyenson says the site suggests that whale strandings were occurring millions of years before modern humans evolved. That’s helpful context for researchers who are trying to prevent strandings in the present day.
For example, a large proportion of the fossils come from baleen whales, even though baleen whales make up only a small fraction of whale strandings today. So what’s changed between then and now? For one thing, centuries of whaling have decimated populations of baleen whales, Pyenson says.
These strandings have been happening “ever since there were whales,” says Ketten. But humans are now contributing to the problem, whether through whaling, plastic pollution, or climate change. “What we have to be responsible for is actions that we take in the ocean that may be … causing animals to become less fit, to be less healthy, to be less able to reproduce, to mate, to find food.”
Whale fossils like the ones Pyenson studied in the Atacama Desert can serve as a sort of snapshot or baseline, revealing how whale strandings looked before humans ever came along. And more researchers can establish about the distant past, the more they may know about the effects that humans are having on these majestic mammals.
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