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The Center for Responsive Politics projects that more than $5.2 billion will be spent this election cycle, making it the most expensive midterm election ever by a wide margin.
With less than two weeks before election day, $4.7 billion has already been spent by candidates, political parties and other groups such as PACs, super PACs and nonprofits. Prior to this election cycle, no midterm election had surpassed more than $4.1 billion in spending when adjusted for inflation.
The overall estimated cost of the 2018 election would represent a 35 percent increase over the 2014 cycle in nominal dollars, the largest increase in at least two decades.
“The significance of this election is clear. But whether it’s a blue wave or a red wave, one thing is certain: A wave of money is surging toward Election Day, much of it coming from the wealthiest donors targeting this year’s most competitive races,” said Sheila Krumholz, executive director of the Center for Responsive Politics.
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While Republican candidates are raising funds at record levels, the huge uptick in spending is driven primarily by unprecedented Democratic fundraising. Democratic candidates are projected to spend more than $2.5 billion this cycle, while Republicans are expected to spend approximately $2.2 billion.
Democratic House hopefuls have raised more than $951 million, crushing their Republican opponents’ $637 million haul. Things are closer in the Senate—$513 million to $361 million—but Democrats are still ahead.
In every kind of competitive race—even those in red districts—Democrats are either outraising Republicans or keeping pace.
For example, in 27 House races rated “Likely R” by Cook Political Report, Democrats are keeping up in fundraising, collecting $1.95 million on average to Republicans’ $2 million.
In 29 House races labeled “toss up” that are currently held by a Republican, Democratic candidates raised an average of $5.5 million, dwarfing the Republicans’ $3 million average.
Democrats outraised Republicans in every quarter, and the most recent pre-general filing period—Oct. 1 through Oct. 17—was no different. Republicans were outraised $126 million to $82.5 million. For the first time in a decade, Blue will outraise Red.
“Whether you’re looking at donations from women, large donors, small donors, dark money groups, parties, or unions, the Democrats are seeing incredible success in fundraising this cycle,” said Sarah Bryner, research director at the Center for Responsive Politics. “Whether that money will translate into success on November 6th is an open question, given that money—while essential—is by no means the only factor governing electoral outcomes.”
Women, out-of-state and small donors fuel Democratic fundraising eruption
Democratic candidates have benefited from an unparalleled level of enthusiasm from female donors. Democrats running in the general election have raised $308 million from female donors, compared to approximately $90 million for Republicans.
Female Democratic Senate candidates—who are mostly made up of incumbents—hauled in an average of $5.3 million in contributions from women, accounting for 48 percent of their fundraising.
Each of the seven most popular Senators among women donors is a female Democrat. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) headlines the list with 56 percent of her contributions coming from women. Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) performed the worst with female donors of any major candidate, with 18 percent of his campaign cash coming from women.
On the House side, Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.) collected a candidate-high 63 percent of his contributions from women. Not a single Republican cracks the top 10 for Senate or House candidates when it comes to the percentage of funds from female donors.
Republican men running for House collected the lowest percentage of their money from female donors—24 percent.
Small donors, too, have been an advantage for Democrats. Among House candidates, 16 percent of contributions to Democrats come from individuals and total less than $200—considered a small individual contribution—compared to 8 percent of House Republicans’ funds.
Senate Democrats collect a whopping 27 percent of their money from small individual contributions, again doubling up Republicans (13 percent).
In the pre-general filing period, a mammoth 44 percent of donations to Democratic Senate hopefuls came from small contributions, adding up to $22 million.
Democrats’ success with their online fundraiser ActBlue has led to more small contributions, as well as a base of voters that is more than willing to donate to out-of-state candidates.
In terms of itemized individual contributions, Senate Democrats received 60 percent of their funds—nearly $220 million—from out-of-state donors. Democrats in the House got 45 percent of their funds from out-of-state.
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