GOP turns against Jan. 6 probe as midterm distraction

Senate Republicans are turning against a commission to investigate the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, warning it would be a distraction heading into the 2022 midterm elections.

The House passed the bill in a 252-175 vote on Wednesday, including support from 35 Republicans, setting up a showdown in the Senate amid hardening battle lines. But even if the same share of Republicans vote for the measure in the Senate, that wouldn’t be enough to get it over the finish line.

GOP senators are under growing pressure to oppose the bill. Former President TrumpDonald TrumpCuomo investigation includes priority virus testing for family, associates: report Anonymous Capitol Police letter to spur support for Jan. 6 probe causes stir Florida GOP passes bill that would clear way for Trump casino license MORE — who still wields the most influence in the party — is making clear he’s keeping an eye on the debate and the votes.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellAnonymous Capitol Police letter to spur support for Jan. 6 probe causes stir House approves Jan. 6 commission over GOP objections Tim Ryan gives incensed speech on House floor slamming GOP over Jan. 6 commission MORE (R-Ky.) voiced his opposition to the legislation on Wednesday, and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthyKevin McCarthyAnonymous Capitol Police letter to spur support for Jan. 6 probe causes stir House approves Jan. 6 commission over GOP objections House rejects GOP effort to roll back chamber’s mask mandate MORE (R-Calif.), who voted against the measure, spoke to a group of Republican senators at a closed-door meeting that same day.

Blocking the bill would undoubtedly generate negative headlines for the GOP and put Republicans in the awkward position of opposing a commission to probe an insurrection many of them have already condemned.

A months-long commission, which Republicans fear would stretch past its year-end deadline, would keep Jan. 6 in the spotlight as the midterms draw near. GOP lawmakers are warning that it would risk keeping them off message when much of the party is eager to talk about almost anything besides the deadly attack.

“I want our midterm message to be … jobs and wages and the economy and national security and safe streets … and not relitigating the 2020 election,” said Sen. John ThuneJohn Randolph ThuneSenate panels to release Jan. 6 Capitol security report in June McConnell says he opposes ‘slanted’ Jan. 6 commission bill Jan. 6 commission faces new hurdles in Senate MORE (S.D.), the No. 2 Senate Republican, who hasn’t made a decision on the bill.

“A lot of our members, and I think it is true of a lot of the House Republicans, want to be moving forward. … Anything that gets us rehashing the 2020 election, I think, is a day lost,” Thune added.

Other Republicans appeared to echo Trump’s warning that the legislation — which was negotiated by Rep. John KatkoJohn Michael KatkoAnonymous Capitol Police letter to spur support for Jan. 6 probe causes stir House approves Jan. 6 commission over GOP objections Tim Ryan gives incensed speech on House floor slamming GOP over Jan. 6 commission MORE (N.Y.), the top Republican on the House Homeland Security Committee — was designed to be politically damaging to Republicans. The House-passed bill says the commission should wrap by the end of the year, but Republicans questioned if that was a realistic timeline.

“Part of the concern is that’s the plan, that’s [Speaker Nancy] Pelosi’s plan,” said Sen. John CornynJohn CornynJan. 6 commission faces new hurdles in Senate Mask rules spark confusion, tensions in Congress Voting rights hit wall in Congress amid GOP overhauls MORE (R-Texas) said about it potentially spilling over into 2022, while noting he hadn’t made a final decision. “That would be the Democrats’ dream. I generally don’t try to help Democrats.”

Sen. Kevin CramerKevin John CramerJan. 6 commission faces new hurdles in Senate Senators offer bill to allow remote online notarizations All congressional Democrats say they have been vaccinated: CNN MORE (R-N.D.), when asked if it would be a distraction, quipped: “That may be why they want to do it so badly.”

The growing opposition makes it increasingly unclear where Democrats would be able to get the 10 GOP votes needed to pass the bill in the Senate.

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Seven GOP senators previously voted to convict Trump of inciting an insurrection in the wake of the Jan. 6 attack, when a mob of his supporters breached the Capitol building while then-Vice President Mike PenceMichael (Mike) Richard PencePence’s brother will vote against Jan. 6 commission Senate panels to release Jan. 6 Capitol security report in June McConnell says he opposes ‘slanted’ Jan. 6 commission bill MORE and lawmakers were counting the Electoral College vote.

But none have yet explicitly backed the House bill. Sen. Bill CassidyBill CassidyDemocrats ask Facebook to abandon ‘Instagram for kids’ plans Helping students make informed decisions on college CDC director denies political pressure affected new mask guidelines MORE (R-La.) has come the closest.

“I’ve said already that although I’d like to know more about it, I’m inclined to support it. So I’ll leave it at that,” Cassidy said.

Sens. Mitt RomneyWillard (Mitt) Mitt RomneyChamber of Commerce warns ‘virus is not behind us’ Jan. 6 commission faces new hurdles in Senate Pelosi calls for diplomatic boycott of Beijing Games MORE (R-Utah) and Susan CollinsSusan Margaret CollinsSenate bill would allow for payments to ‘Havana syndrome’ victims Lobbying world Senate narrowly advances Biden civil rights nominee MORE (R-Maine) have both said they are interested in a commission, but neither has endorsed the legislation. Instead, they are raising concerns about how the panel would be staffed.

The language in the House measure is the same as the bill that created the 9/11 commission, but Republicans are worried it would let Democrats pick the entire staff even though the membership of the panel is evenly split.

Collins, like many of her GOP colleagues, raised concerns that it could spill over into the election year.

“I also think it’s important that this be independent and nonpartisan. And that means that we should make sure that the work is done this year and does not go over into the election year,” Collins told reporters.

Sen. Lisa MurkowskiLisa Ann MurkowskiJan. 6 commission faces new hurdles in Senate Senate narrowly advances Biden civil rights nominee Intercept bureau chief: Manchin-backed bill doesn’t address voter suppression MORE (R-Alaska) sidestepped multiple questions this week about the House bill. Sens. Pat ToomeyPatrick (Pat) Joseph ToomeySasse rebuked by Nebraska Republican Party over impeachment vote Philly GOP commissioner on censures: ‘I would suggest they censure Republican elected officials who are lying’ Toomey censured by several Pennsylvania county GOP committees over impeachment vote MORE (R-Pa.) and Ben SasseBen SasseRomney: Capitol riot was ‘an insurrection against the Constitution’ Overnight Energy: 5 takeaways from the Colonial Pipeline attack | Colonial aims to ‘substantially’ restore pipeline operations by end of week | Three questions about Biden’s conservation goals Hillicon Valley: Colonial Pipeline attack underscores US energy’s vulnerabilities | Biden leading ‘whole-of-government’ response to hack | Attorneys general urge Facebook to scrap Instagram for kids MORE (R-Neb.) are undecided. And a spokeswoman for Sen. Richard BurrRichard Mauze BurrLobbying world Equality is for all God’s children: Black, brown, white, straight and LGBTQ Trump to speak at North Carolina GOP convention MORE (R-N.C.) didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment Wednesday.

Thune, McConnell’s No. 2, hasn’t said how he will vote, and he hasn’t started exploring whether there are 10 GOP “yes” votes in the Senate.

“There are some of our members who I think obviously have an interest in seeing a commission go forward, others who think it would be counterproductive … and that it could be weaponized politically and drawn into next year,” Thune said. “Members are in different places, but I would say there’s a skepticism about what’s happening in the House right now.”

Unlike the House, where Katko helped craft the bill and voted for its passage despite opposition from GOP leaders, there’s no Republican vocally pushing for a commission in the Senate.

Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), who was a close ally of Trump’s, told reporters that he was “fine” with a commission if it was bipartisan. But while he argued against expanding the scope to include broader political violence — like some Republicans are calling for — he also said that if there is going to be a commission on Jan. 6, there should be a commission on other politically motivated violence, an approach Democrats have rejected.

“I think that probably if you’re going to do one, you need to do both,” Tuberville said.

Sen. Mike RoundsMike RoundsMask rules spark confusion, tensions in Congress Senators shed masks after CDC lifts mandate GOP split on counteroffer to Biden’s spending MORE (R-S.D.), after initially suggesting he was open to a commission, told reporters after McConnell’s speech Wednesday and attending the breakfast with McCarthy that he was moving away from supporting it.

“Right now it would appear that under the layout that they’ve got that this probably could not get started with a staff approved until late this year. That’s way too late, way too long,” Rounds said.

McConnell, after keeping his powder dry on Tuesday, informed GOP senators at a breakfast on Wednesday that he would oppose the bill. McCarthy, who voiced his opposition a day earlier, was at the same meeting that included roughly a dozen senators.

“After careful consideration, I’ve made the decision to oppose the House Democrats’ slanted and unbalanced proposal for another commission to study the events of Jan. 6,” McConnell said from the Senate floor.

McConnell has been eager to move past the attack on the Capitol, which he’s condemned, and doesn’t tend to get sideways with the thinking of the majority of his caucus.

“It clarifies things … for all of the rest of us. It gives some direction,” said Cramer. “It’s always instructive when Mitch comes out on a specific piece of legislation.”

Other members of the caucus have been vocal opponents to creating a commission.

“I hope no Republicans in the House vote for this,” Sen. Ron JohnsonRonald (Ron) Harold JohnsonRon Johnson opposes Jan. 6 commission OVERNIGHT ENERGY: Supreme Court sides with oil companies in Baltimore case| White House environmental justice advisers express opposition to nuclear, carbon capture projects | Biden administration to develop performance standards for federal buildings Sunday shows – Cheney removal, CDC guidance reverberate MORE (R-Wis.) said during a Fox News interview. “I hope nobody in the Senate embraces it either.”

Other GOP senators say a new investigation would be redundant because of the ongoing probe by the Senate Rules and Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs committees, with senators expecting a report in early June detailing security and intelligence failures from Jan. 6.

“It’s not necessary,” said Sen. James LankfordJames Paul LankfordThe Hill’s Morning Report – Presented by Facebook – Biden wants Congress to pass abortion bill, pushes for Mideast cease-fire Top border officials defend Biden policies Rubio and bipartisan group of senators push to make daylight saving time permanent MORE (R-Okla.). “We’ve already been doing the work.”

Sen. Roy BluntRoy Dean BluntSenate panels to release Jan. 6 Capitol security report in June Jan. 6 commission faces new hurdles in Senate St. Louis attorney who waved rifle at protesters files to run for Senate MORE (Mo.), the top Republican on the Rules Committee and a McConnell ally, argued that a commission would “slow up our ability to do the things that we need to do to respond to Jan. 6.”

“I’m not for it. I’ve never been for it,” Blunt said. “I think structurally it has problems.”