Fed's Brainard: Lack of fiscal deal could reignite coronavirus recession

Federal Reserve board member Lael Brainard warned Wednesday that the U.S. economy could slip back into recession if the White House and Congress cannot strike a deal on fiscal stimulus. 

Brainard said in a speech that a failure to approve more coronavirus relief funding poses “the most significant downside risk” to the economy other than a massive resurgence of COVID-19. She warned that without further assistance for millions of unemployed workers and cash-strapped state and local governments, the recovery from the onset of the pandemic could grind to a halt or even reverse.

“Too little support would lead to a slower and weaker recovery,” Brainard said.

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“Premature withdrawal of fiscal support would risk allowing recessionary dynamics to become entrenched, holding back employment and spending, increasing scarring from extended unemployment spells, leading more businesses to shutter and ultimately harming productive capacity.”

Brainard and other top Fed officials have warned since May that extending the aid passed through the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act would be crucial to a steady recovery. She and a broad, ideologically diverse range of economists credit the $2.2 trillion stimulus bill with dampening the economic blow of the pandemic and paving the way to a quicker rebound.

“With unemployment and reduced hours likely to persist, many of these households are unlikely to be able to sustain recent levels of consumption without additional fiscal support as well as extended loan forbearance and eviction moratoriums,” she said on Wednesday.

“The financial security of displaced workers will depend importantly on whether unemployment benefits will be extended or supplemented—and if this will occur before any remaining savings accrued from the CARES Act funding run out.”

Brainard and her colleagues’ pleas for further fiscal support have become increasingly dire and direct as the White House and House Democrats attempt to strike a deal on another round of aid before Election Day. 

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Speaker Nancy PelosiNancy PelosiOn The Money: McConnell says he would give Trump-backed coronavirus deal a Senate vote | Pelosi, Mnuchin see progress, but no breakthrough | Trump, House lawyers return to court in fight over financial records Progress, but no breakthrough, on coronavirus relief McConnell says he would give Trump-backed coronavirus deal a vote in Senate MORE (D-Calif.) and Treasury Secretary Steven MnuchinSteven Terner MnuchinOn The Money: McConnell says he would give Trump-backed coronavirus deal a Senate vote | Pelosi, Mnuchin see progress, but no breakthrough | Trump, House lawyers return to court in fight over financial records Progress, but no breakthrough, on coronavirus relief McConnell says he would give Trump-backed coronavirus deal a vote in Senate MORE have spent weeks in near daily negotiations to strike a long-shot pre-election stimulus deal. While Pelosi on Tuesday cited progress toward resolving Democratic concerns with the Trump administration’s offer, there is no formal deal yet with less than two weeks until Election Day.

An eventual Pelosi-White House deal, which would likely cost roughly $1.8 trillion, also faces hurdles in the GOP-controlled Senate. Senate Republican leaders have warned that there is little support among their conference for another $1 trillion-plus bill, though Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellOn The Money: McConnell says he would give Trump-backed coronavirus deal a Senate vote | Pelosi, Mnuchin see progress, but no breakthrough | Trump, House lawyers return to court in fight over financial records Progress, but no breakthrough, on coronavirus relief LGBTQ voters must show up at the polls, or risk losing progress MORE (R-Ky.) said Tuesday he would bring such a measure up for a vote anyway.

If all members of the Senate Democratic Caucus vote for a potential stimulus package of that size, it would need the support of 13 Senate Republicans to reach President TrumpDonald John TrumpBiden holds massive cash advantage over Trump ahead of Election Day Tax records show Trump maintains a Chinese bank account: NYT Trump plays video of Biden, Harris talking about fracking at Pennsylvania rally MORE’s desk. 

Toronto Raptors coach urges Americans living in Canada to vote

Toronto Raptors coach Nick Nurse urged Americans living in Canada to vote in the U.S. on Election Day.

Nurse called the Nov. 3 election between President TrumpDonald John TrumpBiden holds massive cash advantage over Trump ahead of Election Day Tax records show Trump maintains a Chinese bank account: NYT Trump plays video of Biden, Harris talking about fracking at Pennsylvania rally MORE and Democratic nominee Joe BidenJoe BidenBiden holds massive cash advantage over Trump ahead of Election Day Tax records show Trump maintains a Chinese bank account: NYT Trump plays video of Biden, Harris talking about fracking at Pennsylvania rally MORE “the most important of our lifetime,” joining the rest of his team in a public campaign to urge Americans living in Canada to vote, USA Today reported.

“There’s no more excuses this time around,” Nurse told USA Today Sports Tuesday. “I gave you all mine. Everybody’s got excuses, but we’ve all got to put excuses aside and make sure we all do our part and vote. That’s it.”

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Nurse said his players were voicing the importance of the 2020 election in March prior to the NBA season being halted by the coronavirus pandemic.

The NBA Players Association reported nearly 96 percent of the league is now registered to vote, up after almost less than a quarter of eligible players voted in the 2016 election.

The Raptors represent one of 20 teams with 100 percent of eligible players registered to vote.

“People are asking for change in a lot of different areas,” Nurse said. “One of the real ways to affect change is through voting and getting through government officials and legislation. If you’re asking for a law to be changed, you need to vote the people you think will change those laws into office.”

The Raptors have encouraged voting on its social media this year and Nurse has amplified the message himself, hoping to convince as many Americans living in Canada as possible to participate in the U.S. election.

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The coach added that the Federal Voting Assistance Program’s website had received three times the traffic it receives typically from Canada. The webpage aids with the voting process for service members as well as Americans overseas.

According to the Federal Voting Assistance Program’s overseas voting analysis in the 2016 election, Canada had more than 622,000 eligible voters, though only 7 percent requested absentee ballots in the last presidential election.

Nurse said “there’s some room for improvement” for absentee voter turnout in Canada, as only 5.3 percent of registered voters cast ballots in 2016.

Israeli minister: Normalized relations with another Arab or Muslim nation likely before US elections

Israel’s minister of regional cooperation said Wednesday that he expects normalize relations with another Arab state before the U.S. elections.

Reuters reported that Ofir Akunis, who is also a member of Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, told Army Radio that the announcement would come before Nov. 3.

“I have a reasonable basis to believe that the announcement will come before November 3  that, if you’ll permit me, is what I understand from my sources,” he said, according to the news service.

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“I will be very happy if the announcement will happen  and before the elections in the United States,” Akunis added.

President TrumpDonald John TrumpBiden holds massive cash advantage over Trump ahead of Election Day Tax records show Trump maintains a Chinese bank account: NYT Trump plays video of Biden, Harris talking about fracking at Pennsylvania rally MORE last month presided over a historic ceremony that saw Israel normalize relations with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. The agreements, called the Abraham Accords, represented the first time an Arab country has normalized relations with Israel since Jordan did in 1994 and Egypt did in 1979.

The White House sought to use deals as a means of promoting Trump as a peacemaker.

Trump at the start of this year unveiled his long-awaited plan to broker peace between Israel and Palestine that heavily favored Israel’s priorities and has been rejected by the Palestinians.

In 2018, Palestine criticized Trump for moving the U.S. Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

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Biden drawing more Twitter engagement than Trump for first time this year

Democratic presidential nominee Joe BidenJoe BidenBiden holds massive cash advantage over Trump ahead of Election Day Tax records show Trump maintains a Chinese bank account: NYT Trump plays video of Biden, Harris talking about fracking at Pennsylvania rally MORE started drawing more engagement on his Twitter posts than President TrumpDonald John TrumpBiden holds massive cash advantage over Trump ahead of Election Day Tax records show Trump maintains a Chinese bank account: NYT Trump plays video of Biden, Harris talking about fracking at Pennsylvania rally MORE for the first time this year, according to data reported Tuesday. 

Data from media intelligence company Conviva found the former vice president inched above Trump in engagement per post on Twitter this past month, Axios reported. 

Biden has steadily been increasing in the monthly averages of engagements per post, average engagements per video and follower adds since the beginning of the year, according to Axios. This past month the Democrat passed the president in all three metrics. 

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Conviva’s data on engagement only includes retweets and likes, not quote tweets, according to Axios.

The president’s following on Twitter is still far larger than Biden’s, at 87.3 million compared to Biden’s 11.2 million. 

Biden also drew a larger audience than Trump during last week’s dueling town halls. Biden’s 90-minute event on ABC News garnered 14.1 million viewers, compared with 13.5 million for Trump’s 60-minute town hall which aired on NBC, MSNBC and CNBC. 

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With just two weeks to Election Day, national polls have shown Biden leading Trump.

In some crucial battleground states including North Carolina and Florida, Biden and Trump are running a tight race. However, recent polls have shown the former vice president beating the incumbent in other battleground states including Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. 

The candidates are set to face off Thursday during the second presidential debate.

Trump hits Biden on fracking in appeal to Pennsylvania voters

President TrumpDonald John TrumpLabor secretary’s wife tests positive for COVID-19 Russia shuts down Trump admin’s last-minute push to strike nuclear arms deal before election Trump makes appeal to suburban women at rally: ‘Will you please like me?’ MORE on Tuesday targeted Democratic nominee Joe BidenJoe BidenTrump makes appeal to suburban women at rally: ‘Will you please like me?’ Pro-Trump campaign ad uses stock footage from Russia, Belarus Harris raises alarm on abortion rights while grilling Barrett MORE‘s stance on fracking in a pitch to Pennsylvania voters, zeroing in on an issue of heightened importance in the Keystone State.

The president’s campaign rally was filled with his usual attacks on Biden’s mental sharpness and character and exaggerated claims about the former vice president’s platform. But his speech was tailored a bit more toward the crowd with heavy references to fracking.

“Joe Biden has repeatedly pledged to abolish fracking he’s a liar, ok? He’s a liar,” Trump said, accusing Biden of flip-flopping.

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“And let me tell you, it’s always the first thing that turns out to be true, OK,” Trump added. “There will be no fracking, whatsoever. And did you see, his party now is really angry at him because he’s saying maybe they’ll be fracking, it’s a very conditional, you know, it’s a very weak. But with me you’re going to frack. You’re going to frack.”

Fracking is a method of drilling into shale to release oil and natural gas. The practice is a major producer of energy in certain parts of the country, but it comes with significant environmental concerns, particularly about drinking water contamination, that have prompted progressives to call for limitations or an outright ban.

The Trump campaign has sought to turn Biden’s stance on fracking into a major issue in energy-producing states like Pennsylvania and Texas. But the Biden campaign has been adamant that the former vice president would not ban fracking.

Biden in a Democratic primary debate earlier this year seemed to indicate that he was also in favor of stopping fracking when pressed by Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersTrump hits Biden on fracking in appeal to Pennsylvania voters America Ferrera calls on Hispanics to vote early in new DNC ads Betting on the ‘base’ — can Trump win again? MORE (I-Vt.). But his campaign quickly sought to clarify that was not his official position.

“I am not banning fracking. Let me say that again: I am not banning fracking,” Biden told a crowd in Pennsylvania in August. “No matter how many times Donald Trump lies about me.”

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Vice President Mike PenceMichael (Mike) Richard PenceTrump hits Biden on fracking in appeal to Pennsylvania voters The Hill’s 12:30 Report – Sponsored by Facebook – Barrett faces questions from senators, doesn’t use notes Biden and Harris would end Trump’s China policy — Pence would extend it MORE pressed Democratic vice presidential nominee Sen. Kamala HarrisKamala HarrisHarris raises alarm on abortion rights while grilling Barrett Trump hits Biden on fracking in appeal to Pennsylvania voters Kamala Harris and the stereotypes we place on Black women MORE (D-Calif.) on the campaign’s fracking stance during last week’s debate. Pence noted that Harris herself pushed to end fracking as part of her own unsuccessful presidential campaign.

“Joe Biden will not end fracking, he has been very clear about that,” Harris said.

The Trump campaign has put significant resources into holding Pennsylvania in November. The president won the state by roughly 45,000 votes in 2016, but polls have shown him trailing Biden there.

A RealClearPolitics average of polls shows Biden leading in Pennsylvania by 7 percentage points. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted last week showed Biden ahead by 7 points. 

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EU sanctions six Russians in Navalny poisoning

The European Union announced Thursday that it is sanctioning six Russian officials and one organization over the August poisoning of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, the harshest rebuke yet over the incident.

The sanctions target some of Moscow’s highest ranking officials, indicating the EU’s acceptance of findings that the Kremlin itself ordered Navalny’s poisoning. The penalties include an EU travel ban and an asset freeze.

Among those penalized are Alexander Bortnikov, the head of Russia’s Federal Security Service, which oversees domestic security, a role previously held by the KGB, and Sergei Kiriyenko, Russian President Vladimir PutinVladimir Vladimirovich PutinRussia records more than 14K new coronavirus cases, setting single-day record Mellman: The Democratic deficits Russia shuts down Trump admin’s last-minute push to strike nuclear arms deal before election MORE’s deputy chief of staff.

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The sanctions also target Andrei Yarin, the head of the Presidential Domestic Policy Directorate; Sergei Menyailo, an official in Siberia, where Navalny was poisoned; Pavel Popov, the deputy Defense minister; Alexei Krivoruchku, another deputy Defense minister; and the State Scientific Research Institute for Organic Chemistry and Technology.

The United Kingdom says it is also applying the sanctions and will continue to do so after a post-Brexit transition period at the end of the year.

“Today’s asset freezes and travel bans significantly punish Russia’s reckless and malign behaviour,” the U.K. Foreign Ministry said in a statement. “The UK and its partners have agreed that there is no plausible explanation for Mr. Navalny’s poisoning, other than Russian involvement and responsibility. Russia must hold a full and transparent investigation into the poisoning of one of its citizens on its soil with a banned chemical weapon. 

“The sanctions, which are now in force, send a strong signal that there are consequences for the use of chemical weapons and the threat their use poses to the rules-based international system, designed to keep us all safe.”

Russian officials have denied any involvement in Navalny’s poisoning and pushed back against the sanctions, saying they “inflicted damage” on the E.U.’s relations with Russia.

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“Moscow will analyze the situation and will act in accordance with its own interests,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the Associated Press, adding that “no logic can be seen in such a decision” by the E.U.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov previewed retaliatory measures.

“The EU is increasingly replacing the art of diplomacy with sanctions. Clearly, the bad example of the United States is contagious. We see this not just as a bad example by the Americans, but also as a result of direct US pressure on its European allies and colleagues. Indeed, what we are saying now is that we want to understand what the EU is trying to accomplish. But this EU policy will not remain without consequences,” he said at a Wednesday press conference before the penalties were finalized.

Navalny is believed to have been poisoned in Siberia in August when he drank tea laced with the nerve agent Novichok, which had been used previously in an attempted assassination of an ex-Russian spy in the United Kingdom that is also believed to have been ordered by Moscow. He has since been recovering in Berlin.

In an interview with “60 Minutes” set to air on Sunday, Navalny calls on President TrumpDonald John TrumpTwitter CEO calls blocking New York Post article without explanation ‘unacceptable’ Michael Cohen writing second book on Trump administration’s Justice Department As Trump downplayed the virus publicly, memo based on private briefings sparked stock sell-offs: NYT MORE, who has expressed skepticism about Moscow’s involvement in the incident, to condemn the use of Novichok.

“I think it’s extremely important that everyone, of course including and maybe first of all president of United States, to be very against using chemical weapons in the 21st century,” Navalny told CBS News.

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China threatens retaliation over US arms sale to Taiwan

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China is threatening to retaliate against the U.S. after the Trump administration approved a $1.8 billion arms sale to Taiwan, the autonomous island that Beijing considers its own territory. 

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian accused the U.S. of “interfering” in Beijing’s affairs and said the sale could lead to regional insecurity.

“It seriously interferes in China’s internal affairs, seriously harms China’s sovereignty and security interests, sends out gravely wrong signals to Taiwan independence forces and severely undermines China-US relations and peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. China firmly opposes it,” Zhao said Thursday.

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Zhao urged the U.S. to “stop arms sales to and military ties with the Taiwan region, cancel its arms sales plans to avoid further harming China-US relations and cross-strait peace and stability,” warning that “China will make a legitimate and necessary reaction in the light of the development of the situation.” 

The rebuke comes after the Trump administration issued a formal notification of approval for the arms sale, which will include 135 air-to-ground cruise missiles, called Standoff Land Attack Missile-Expanded Response missiles, and related equipment; 11 truck-mounted rocket launchers, called High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems; and six MS-110 reconnaissance pods that can be attached to Taiwan’s fighter jets. 

“This proposed sale serves U.S. national, economic, and security interests by supporting the recipient’s continuing efforts to modernize its armed forces and to maintain a credible defensive capability,” the administration said in the notices announcing the sale. “The proposed sale will help improve the security of the recipient and assist in maintaining political stability, military balance, economic and progress in the region.” 

The administration added the transfer “will not alter the basic military balance in the region.” 

Taiwan has repeatedly said it has no interest in engaging in an arms race with mainland China, though Zhao sought to cast doubt on that claim in light of the U.S. arms sale. 

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“If they truly don’t want to engage in an arms race, then they should match their words with actions, instead of saying one thing and doing the opposite,” he said. 

The U.S., like many countries around the world, has no formal ties with Taiwan but has emerged as the island’s largest international backer, sparking repeated rebukes from Beijing over Washington’s military assistance. 

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Relations between the U.S. and China have severely soured in recent months over the coronavirus pandemic, trade, Chinese human rights violations in Hong Kong and against Uighurs and other Muslim minority groups, and Beijing’s efforts to influence the 2020 U.S. elections.

'No Country for Brave Journalists': US Plummets in Press Freedom Rankings

It may be the ‘country of the First Amendment,’ but the United States once again received an abysmal ranking from Reporters Without Borders, an international press monitoring and journalism advocacy group, in its annual review of how well nations protect the rights of individual journalists and overall press freedoms.

According to the , the U.S. rank fell from 32nd overall in 2013 to 46th this year, a drop of 13 places which the group said was was a reflection of the detrimental effect on journalism caused by the Obama administration’s “hunt for leaks and whistleblowers”—which was highlighted by the fallout over NSA disclosures made possible by Edward Snowden.

Attacks on journalists and individuals working to inform the public of government misdeeds, said the group’s report, has chilled dissent and journalism by issuing a de facto “warning to those thinking of satisfying a public interest need for information about the imperial prerogatives assumed by the world’s leading power. “

From the report:

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