Trump faces fewer chances to bolster economic argument

President TrumpDonald John TrumpTrump-backed candidate wins NH GOP Senate primary to take on Shaheen Trump, supporters gather without masks in NC despite request from local GOP official Trump-backed candidate wins NH GOP primary to take on Pappas MORE is facing a closing window to sell Americans on the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

With just one more monthly jobs report set to be released before Election Day, the president has less than eight weeks to convince swing voters that he can usher the U.S. back to the strong economy it enjoyed before the coronavirus recession.

The labor force has gained back about half of the more than 20 million jobs lost after the onset of the pandemic. The unemployment rate is now down to 8.4 percent in August after skyrocketing to 14.7 percent in April.

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Trump and his top advisers have eagerly touted the recovery of the labor market throughout the summer, unleashing a flurry of tweets and staging White House press conferences to emphasize their optimistic outlook.

Even so, economists warn that the deep economic damage wrought by the pandemic and slowing pace of the recovery could overshadow solid national data among critical voters, particularly if there isn’t any more financial relief coming from Washington.

“Congress needs to take its eyes off the stock market and focus more on the people who elected them. They are still hurting and need support for the basics of food and shelter,” wrote Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, in a Tuesday report.

The strong pre-pandemic economy was considered one of Trump’s most compelling edges heading into 2020. The unemployment rate had sunk to a 50-year low of 3.5 percent, inflation was low and wage growth had inched up above a 3 percent annual rise at the start of the year.

But the onset of the coronavirus pandemic derailed that pitch when it caused the steepest and quickest economic collapse since the Great Depression.

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The unemployment rate spiked to a post-Depression high of nearly 15 percent in April, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics said was likely closer to 19 percent if accounting for misclassification errors caused by the pandemic. Gross domestic product also fell at an annualized rate of nearly 32 percent in the second quarter, meaning the U.S. economy would have shrunk by a third if that pace continued for 12 months.

While the pandemic has had a dismal impact on the U.S. economy, it did little harm to Trump’s economic record among voters. An average of polls compiled by RealClearPolitics shows 49 percent of voters approving of his handling of the economy, better than his 44 percent overall approval rating. Several recent polls of battleground states show Trump and former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenTrump, supporters gather without masks in NC despite request from local GOP official Democrats fear 2016 repeat despite Biden’s lead in polls Trump: Harris would be an ‘insult’ as first female president MORE, his Democratic challenger, fairly close among voters when asked who would be best for the U.S. economy.

“It’s less about the headlines and it’s mostly about their own economy, about their own financial situation,” said Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi, referring to the monthly employment report.

Zandi added that a bad jobs report “might make it easier for people who sense that the economy is struggling to come to that conclusion. But at the end of the day I think it’s their own personal financial situation that matters to them, not the aggregate statistics.”

With an improving economy and resilient polling at his back, Trump is seeking to close in on Biden by touting the success of the recovery. The president held a press conference on Labor Day ostensibly to tout the August jobs report, which showed a gain of 1.4 million jobs, and spent much of the holiday weekend claiming that Biden would upend that progress.

“Biggest & Fastest Financial Recovery In History. Next year will be BEST EVER, unless a very Sleepy person becomes President and massively raises your taxes — In which case, CRASH!” Trump tweeted Monday.

A particularly good or bad September jobs report may move the needle among swing voters in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Florida — four states Trump won in 2016 but where Biden has led in recent polls. The next jobs report, set to be released on Oct. 2, will be the country’s final official read on unemployment before heading to the polls.

“That’s right after the first debate,” currently scheduled for Sept. 29, “coming right into the teeth of the election, and that could influence people,” Zandi said.

Even so, the month in between the September jobs report and the Nov. 3 election is still laden with risks for the economy — and Trump’s reelection prospects.

Despite four months of improvement, U.S. employment is still 11.5 million workers below its pre-pandemic level. Economists are also concerned that a two-month stalemate over further fiscal aid could undercut the slowing recovery as the U.S. reaches its maximum economic potential amid a pandemic that stifles activity.

In a Census Bureau survey conducted the final week of July, 51 percent of American households reported a loss of employment income, 12 percent said they were suffering from food scarcity and a staggering 26 percent reported housing insecurity.

“The bottom line, then, is that the August employment report does not change the underlying picture of an economy struggling mightily in the face of the Covid crisis. The need for further fiscal stimulus is acute if the post-vaccine economy is not to look like a wasteland, with tens of thousands of small consumer-dependent businesses gone for good,” wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, in a Tuesday research note.

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O'Rourke says he'll be 'more thoughtful' in talking about his family

Democratic presidential hopeful Beto O’RourkeBeto O’RourkeBiden will help close out Texas Democrats’ virtual convention: report O’Rourke on Texas reopening: ‘Dangerous, dumb and weak’ Parties gear up for battle over Texas state House MORE said Friday he’ll be “more thoughtful” when talking about his family after joking on the campaign trail this week that his wife has been raising their children “sometimes with my help.”

“Not only will I not say that again, but I’ll be more thoughtful going forward in the way that I talk about our marriage,” O’Rourke said during a recording of the podcast “Political Party LIVE!” in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, according to CNN.

The former Texas congressman, fresh off launching his White House bid this week, said he would also be more thoughtful in “the way in which I acknowledge the truth of the criticism that I have enjoyed white privilege.”

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“My ham-handed attempt to try to highlight the fact that Amy has the lion’s share of the burden in our family — that she actually works but is the primary parent in our family, especially when I served in Congress, especially when I was on the campaign trail — should have also been a moment for me to acknowledge that that is far too often the case, not just in politics, but just in life in general. I hope as I have been in some instances part of the problem, I can also be part of the solution,” he added regarding criticism that female candidates could not make similar jokes about their families.

O’Rourke entered the Democratic primary race Thursday, following months of mulling a White House bid. He formally announced his campaign a day after being featured in a Vanity Fair cover story in which he remarked, “Man, I’m just born to be in it.”

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The former congressman has sought to capitalize on the momentum from his 2018 Senate campaign, which shattered small-dollar donation records and electrified the Democratic base, despite losing by under 3 points.

However, the Texas Democrat was forced to issue two mea culpas within the first 48 hours of his campaign: one over his previous remarks about his family, and another about his time being in a hacking group while a teenager.

O’Rourke acknowledged on Friday that he was a member of a group of activist hackers while in high school in the 1980s after his involvement in the group was reported by Reuters.

He apologized on Friday for his writings during his time as a member of the group, called the Cult of the Dead Cow, including one fictional piece from a killer’s point of view.

O’Rourke said he was “mortified to read it now, incredibly embarrassed … whatever my intention was as a teenager doesn’t matter.” 

“I have to look long and hard at my actions, at the language I have used, and I have to constantly try to do better.”

O’Rourke is facing more than a dozen other candidates vying for the Democratic nomination in 2020, including Sens. Bernie SandersBernie SandersThe Hill’s 12:30 Report: Milley apologizes for church photo-op Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness MORE (I-Vt.), Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenWarren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases OVERNIGHT DEFENSE: Joint Chiefs chairman says he regrets participating in Trump photo-op | GOP senators back Joint Chiefs chairman who voiced regret over Trump photo-op | Senate panel approves 0B defense policy bill Trump on collision course with Congress over bases with Confederate names MORE (D-Mass.), Kamala HarrisKamala Devi HarrisRand Paul introduces bill to end no-knock warrants The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden campaign goes on offensive against Facebook McEnany says Juneteenth is a very ‘meaningful’ day to Trump MORE (D-Calif.) and Cory BookerCory Anthony BookerRand Paul introduces bill to end no-knock warrants Black lawmakers unveil bill to remove Confederate statues from Capitol Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk MORE (D-N.J.).

Ex-GOP lawmaker Handel to run for her former Georgia seat in 2020

Former Rep. Karen HandelKaren Christine HandelJon Ossoff to challenge David Perdue after winning Georgia Democratic primary The Hill’s Campaign Report: Bad polling data is piling up for Trump Ossoff within reach of Democratic Senate nomination in Georgia, but counting continues MORE (R-Ga.) will run for her old seat after losing it in the 2018 midterms, Handel announced on Twitter Monday morning.

Handel was elected to Georgia’s 6th District in the Atlanta suburbs in a June 2017 special election, replacing then-Health and Human Services Secretary Tom PriceThomas (Tom) Edmunds PriceRep. Banks launches bid for RSC chairman Doctors push Trump to quickly reopen country in letter organized by conservatives DNC chair says app used in Iowa won’t be used in other primary states MORE.

But in 2018, she lost to Rep. Lucy McBathLucia (Lucy) Kay McBathFloyd’s brother urges Congress to take action The Hill’s Campaign Report: Bad polling data is piling up for Trump Trayvon Martin’s mother Sybrina Fulton qualifies to run for county commissioner in Florida MORE (D) in her quest for a full term, putting the district in Democratic hands for the first time in more than three decades.

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In an ad titled “Leader” announcing her campaign, Handel used footage of Sen. Kamala HarrisKamala Devi HarrisRand Paul introduces bill to end no-knock warrants The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden campaign goes on offensive against Facebook McEnany says Juneteenth is a very ‘meaningful’ day to Trump MORE (D-Calif.) proposing to “eliminate” private health insurance, Rep. Rashida TlaibRashida Harbi TlaibHow language is bringing down Donald Trump Defunding the police: Put it to a vote McEnany, Ocasio-Cortez tangle over ‘Biden adviser’ label MORE (D-Mich.) using profanity in a call to impeach President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-CortezAttorney says 75-year-old man shoved by Buffalo police suffered brain injury How language is bringing down Donald Trump Highest-circulation Kentucky newspaper endorses Charles Booker in Senate race MORE (D-N.Y.) touting the Green New Deal legislation. 

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“Imagine if we had leaders in Washington who worked for us, leaders more interested in doing their jobs than being a celebrity,” the ad’s voice-over states.

The ad emphasizes Handel’s commitment to veterans’ issues as well as addressing the opioid addiction crisis and human trafficking.

McBath’s office did not immediately reply to a request for comment from The Hill.

But the Democratic lawmaker on Monday sent a fundraising pitch after Handel’s announcement, calling her a “true career politician” who “has run for office over and over for the last 17 years.” 

— Updated at 11:33 a.m.

After Hearing Concerns About Trump Ukraine Call, White House Lawyer Rushed to Hide Transcript on Top Secret Server: Report

White House lawyer John Eisenberg reportedly rushed to hide the transcript of President Donald Trump’s July phone call with Ukraine’s leader on a highly classified server shortly after National Security Council official Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman—who testified before House impeachment investigators Wednesday—raised alarm about the conversation.

Citing anonymous officials familiar with Vindman’s account, the Washington Post reported late Wednesday that “Vindman told Eisenberg, the White House’s legal adviser on national security issues, that what the president did was wrong.”

After “scribbling notes on a yellow legal pad,” according to the Post, “Eisenberg proposed a step that other officials have said is at odds with long-standing White House protocol: moving a transcript of the call to a highly classified server and restricting access to it.”

“The White House lawyer later directed the transcript’s removal to a system known as NICE, for NSC Intelligence Collaboration Environment, which is normally reserved for code-word-level ­intelligence programs and top-secret sources and methods,” the Post reported. “Former Trump national security officials said it was unheard of to store presidential calls with foreign leaders on the NICE system but that Eisenberg had moved at least one other transcript of a Trump phone call there.”

House impeachment investigators have asked Eisenberg to testify Monday. It is not yet clear whether the White House will attempt to bar him from participating.

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