A group of conservative organizations is urging Treasury Secretary Steven MnuchinSteven Terner MnuchinOn The Money: Trump says ‘decoupling’ from China on the table | More than 1.5 million file new jobless claims in second week of June | Democrats unveil .5 trillion infrastructure plan Bolton book shows nastiness rules at Trump White House Conservative groups urge Mnuchin to extend tax payment deadlines into 2021 MORE to extend the July 15 tax deadlines into next year, arguing that this should be an “immediate priority.”

“We ask that you use your authority under the law to defer these tax payment deadlines into 2021,” the groups wrote in a letter to Mnuchin on Thursday. “Doing so would not reduce a penny of tax owed, but would give the economy some much-needed breathing room to recover cash flow, transition to hiring unemployed workers, and rebuild shattered small businesses.”

More than 20 groups signed the letter, including the National Taxpayers Union Foundation, Americans for Tax Reform and FreedomWorks.

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The IRS has already extended a number of tax deadlines to July 15 due to the coronavirus pandemic. Deadlines that were extended include the due date for individuals to file their 2019 tax returns and pay their 2019 taxes, which were previously set for April 15.

The right-leaning groups also noted that deadlines for estimated tax payments for the first and second quarter of this year were also extended to July 15, and that a number of federal excise taxes need to be paid next month.

They called the impending tax deadlines “a fiscal cliff endangering our economic recovery,” one that they said could potentially result in more than $1 trillion “transferred from the private economy to the Treasury.”

The groups praised Mnuchin for extending tax deadlines to July, and said that the Treasury secretary’s leadership is now needed “to help the economy move back to full prosperity, by shifting payments further into 2021.”

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Michael Osterholm, director for the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, said it is “wrong” to hear that Trump administration officials don’t want to have coronavirus testing in the U.S. 

“To hear the fact that, we don’t want to do testing, is wrong. Absolutely, we should be testing as much as possible,” Osterholm said Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” 

Osterholm did not specifically reference President TrumpDonald John TrumpLincoln Project launches new ad hitting Trump over rally turnout Bolton defends not testifying: ‘I don’t think it would have made a difference’ Bolton says he hopes history will remember Trump ‘as a one-term president’ MORE, but during his first campaign rally in months on Saturday in Tulsa, Oklahoma, the president told the crowd he encouraged administration officials to “slow the testing down.” 

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“Testing is a double-edged sword. We’ve tested now 25 million people. It’s probably 20 million people more than anybody else. Germany’s done a lot. South Korea’s done a lot,” Trump said. 

“Here’s the bad part,” he continued. “When you do testing to that extent, you’re going to find more people. You’re going to find more cases. So I said to my people, ‘slow the testing down, please!’”

White House trade adviser Peter Navarro on CNN Sunday said Trump’s comments about testing were “tongue and cheek,” but the president has made similar remarks in the past.

Osterholm also said that a big difficulty in mitigating the spread of the coronavirus in the U.S. has been getting the message across that “this is a very serious issue.” 

“We’re not driving this tiger, we’re riding it. And while other areas have done much better around the world in stopping it, after a very difficult period of time with it, we haven’t done that. And part of that is the fact that we just have not really I think gotten the message across to the public yet that this is a very serious issue. That we can’t shut down our economy but we just can’t suddenly say, we’re done with it,” he said. 

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“Other countries have been much more aware of the fact that the virus is going to do what it’s going to do. And so you have to basically stay locked down. You have to limit transmission areas that we’re not doing. And that’s why I think you’re seeing right now is the increases in a number of states because everybody’s back to a pre-pandemic mindset,” he added. 

States across the country have lifted coronavirus restrictions to varying degrees, in some cases leading to spikes in the number of reported COVID-19 cases. 

Nationwide, more than 2.2 million confirmed COVID-19 cases and 119,744 fatalities have been reported, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

President TrumpDonald John TrumpLincoln Project launches new ad hitting Trump over rally turnout Bolton defends not testifying: ‘I don’t think it would have made a difference’ Bolton says he hopes history will remember Trump ‘as a one-term president’ MORE‘s inconsistent efforts to get tough on China are raising fears of a geopolitical crisis with the world’s second largest economy just ahead of November’s election.

The fears among international relations observers have been magnified after Trump this week said he was open to a complete “decoupling” from China, signaling increasing tensions between the two countries at a particularly delicate moment.

The tough talk comes as China and the U.S. have been mired in a trade war under the Trump administration, military tensions are rising in the South China Sea, and the two countries are engaging in a war of words over the coronavirus pandemic.

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“Relations are obviously at a historically low point, I would say, on almost any dimension you could think of,” said Nicholas Lardy, a senior fellow and China expert at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

An already fraught relationship has grown worse in recent weeks, with the U.S. announcing restrictions on semiconductor and other technology exports to China, while sailing warships to challenge China’s provocative claims in the South China Sea. Legislation imposed by China seen as curbing Hong Kong’s political freedoms and military shows of force around Taiwan have added to the tensions.

The prospect of a worsening trade relationship, however, poses a particularly big economic threat at a time when the global economy is being hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Under the phase one trade deal, China promised to buy some $200 billion of additional U.S. products over two years, including $36.5 billion in agriculture this year alone. Yet China’s agricultural imports from the U.S. in the first quarter were only $5 billion, well short of the target. 

On Thursday, Trump said he was considering policies aimed at “complete decoupling,” a term that broadly refers to breaking the deeply intertwined economic links between the world’s two largest economies.

His comment came in a tweet in which he contradicted Trade Representative Robert LighthizerRobert (Bob) Emmet LighthizerGOP senator warns quick vote on new NAFTA would be ‘huge mistake’ Pelosi casts doubt on USMCA deal in 2019 Pelosi sounds hopeful on new NAFTA deal despite tensions with White House MORE, who had sounded more assuring on China a day earlier during testimony to Congress.

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Lighthizer had said that a decoupling from China was impossible, and that China was well on its way to meeting its commitments under the phase one deal despite the limited purchases of U.S. agricultural products so far. 

Experts sided with Lighthizer, saying a complete decoupling would be difficult, harmful to the U.S. economy, and counter to the policy goals Trump himself has laid out for China.

“Trump obviously has no idea what decoupling means,” said Lardy. “He’s beating the drum for having them buy more goods from us and then saying decouple. Well that’s the opposite of decoupling. It doesn’t compute.”

Meanwhile, Timothy Heath, a senior researcher at the Rand Corporation, said Trump’s threat is an empty one.

“It’s a threat the president cannot really deliver. Who’s going to buy all of America’s soybeans or hogs?” he said.

Heath added that the challenge with China is to keep it contained while also finding areas of cooperation and competing economically.

“Even amid all the trade tension and decoupling efforts, there’s still a recognition that the two countries on some level need to get along. That’s different from the Cold War, where the U.S. and Soviet Union were poised to destroy each other at any moment,” he said.

Worsening the relationship has been the administration’s inconsistent policy and rhetoric on China, which is creating fears of a wider geopolitical conflict.

Despite the recent tough talk, former U.S. National Security adviser John BoltonJohn BoltonBolton defends not testifying: ‘I don’t think it would have made a difference’ Bolton says he hopes history will remember Trump ‘as a one-term president’ Pompeo takes swipe at Bolton in tweet MORE claims in an upcoming book that Trump explicitly sought electoral help from Chinese President Xi Jinping by pushing China to boost agricultural purchases from states critical to his reelection. 

Bolton also claimed that Trump demurred from getting too involved on the Hong Kong protests, saying “we have human-rights problems too,” and gave Xi carte blanche to build concentration camps for Uighur Muslims.

The revelations could fuel fear that the unpredictability will spark a miscalculation on either side, especially at a time of growing military tensions.

“It’s quite possible. The proximity of U.S. and Chinese forces in the South China Seas is tailor made for incidental conflict,” said Robert Manning, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and former State department staff under Secretary Colin PowellColin Luther PowellTrump’s tough talk on China sparks fears of geopolitical crisis Looking forward to pro sports after COVID blackout The Fed and the Pottery Barn Doctrine MORE.

“My fear is that it’s going to take a catastrophe like the Cuban Missile Crisis before both sides sober up,” he added.

Manning said Trump’s focus on China was important, but his policies have largely been counterproductive. He compared the U.S. approach to China to the stages of grief.

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“We were in the denial phase for too long. Now we’re in the anger phase,” Manning said.

One major problem, he said, is that the United States has lost its advantage in one of the most powerful foreign policy tools in the toolbox: taking a leadership role to unite allies. Such leadership would be ideal in the current moment, when China is also at odds with India, Canada, Australia and the E.U. over everything from COVID-19 to human rights to technology.

“If we had smart diplomacy I think we would increase our leverage. It’s sad we can’t play the leadership role we’ve traditionally played,” Manning said.

Adding to the unpredictability, the worsening tensions with China is coming with less than five months to go before the November election, with Trump slipping in the polls to presumptive Democratic nominee Joe BidenJoe BidenBolton defends not testifying: ‘I don’t think it would have made a difference’ Bolton says he hopes history will remember Trump ‘as a one-term president’ Green Party nominee says Sanders, progressives have failed to pull Democrats to the left MORE.

The Trump campaign has sought to paint the former vice president as weak on China, raising the prospect that the Asian country could become mired in the U.S. campaign.

“We could be headed to a really tumultuous few months,” said Heath at the Rand Corporation.

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will reopen its Washington headquarters Tuesday despite opposition from staff who say it’s too early to return to work as coronavirus cases spike across the U.S.

Several of the agency’s regional offices have already opened, spurring a request from the EPA’s union for a moratorium on plans to reopen offices.

“We do expect members of EPA’s political leadership team to return to the office and those returning should follow [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] guidelines to ensure a safe work environment,” EPA spokesman James Hewitt said by email.

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The EPA has said employees will retain maximum telework flexibility and will not be forced to return to the office. Employees have been asked to stay at home if they are at risk of spreading COVID-19.

But employees have argued the agency doesn’t have enough information on hand to determine if it’s safe for employees to return.

“Without a national testing strategy and widespread testing, a key piece is missing for our understanding of how and where the virus is spreading,” the American Federation of Government Employees wrote in a letter to EPA Administrator Andrew WheelerAndrew WheelerEPA to reopen DC headquarters after coronavirus closure Overnight Energy: EPA sued over power plant determination | Former NPS employees ‘appalled’ by plan to ease hunting rules | Park Police chief accused of unlawful searches EPA sued over weakened legal justification behind power plant pollution regulation MORE, arguing offices should remain closed “until the impacts of the COVID-I9 pandemic are more predictable.”

In a Thursday email to EPA staff, the agency said the decision to reopen was based on “an objective assessment, provided weekly by Agency experts” as well as local health data.

“In two weeks, we will decide whether to move forward to Phase 2 or stay in Phase 1,” the note said.

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Happy Friday and welcome back to On The Money. I’m Sylvan Lane, and here’s your nightly guide to everything affecting your bills, bank account and bottom line.

See something I missed? Let me know at slane@thehill.com or tweet me @SylvanLane. And if you like your newsletter, you can subscribe to it here: http://bit.ly/1NxxW2N.

Write us with tips, suggestions and news: slane@thehill.com,  njagoda@thehill.com and nelis@thehill.com. Follow us on Twitter: @SylvanLane, @NJagoda and @NivElis.

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THE BIG DEAL: Treasury, SBA to disclose small business loans of $150K and above: 

The Treasury Department and Small Business Administration (SBA) announced Friday that they would reveal the recipients of loans of $150,000 or more issued through the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) after growing congressional pressure.

The SBA will disclose the names, addresses, classification codes, zip codes, business type, demographic data, non-profit information, jobs supported and loan amount of each firm to receive a coronavirus emergency relief loan of at least $150,000. The amount of the loan will be disclosed within a range, not a specific amount.

The announcement comes amid rising backlash from lawmakers over the lack of transparency into the more than $500 million lent through the PPP, which is intended to help keep small businesses afloat during the coronavirus pandemic. 

Treasury Secretary Steven MnuchinSteven Terner MnuchinTreasury Dept. to disclose details on small business loan recipients On The Money: Treasury, SBA to disclose small business loans of 0K and above | Apple closes stores in states with spikes in coronavirus cases | Artists call on Congress to help club and concert venues during pandemic Our economy is only as strong as our small business community MORE said earlier this week that he was open to bipartisan talks with lawmakers over disclosing the PPP loans.

Mnuchin said in a Friday statement that he was pleased to strike a deal to create “the appropriate balance of providing public transparency, while protecting the payroll and personal income information of small businesses, sole proprietors, and independent contractors.”

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LEADING THE DAY

Apple closes stores in states with spikes in coronavirus cases: Apple is closing 11 stores across the United States in areas where coronavirus cases are beginning to spike again.

The company announced Friday that it will shutter the stores in Florida, Arizona, North Carolina and South Carolina that had recently reopened.

“Due to current COVID-19 conditions in some of the communities we serve, we are temporarily closing stores in these areas,” the company said in a statement. “We take this step with an abundance of caution as we closely monitor the situation and we look forward to having our teams and customers back as soon as possible.”

Artists call on Congress to help club and concert venues during pandemic: Several hundred musicians and performers — including Billy Joel, Whoopi GoldbergWhoopi GoldbergOn The Money: Treasury, SBA to disclose small business loans of 0K and above | Apple closes stores in states with spikes in coronavirus cases | Artists call on Congress to help club and concert venues during pandemic Artists join call to Congress to help club and concert venues during pandemic Joy Behar walks back remark calling Trump a ‘domestic terrorist’ on ‘The View’ MORE and Billie Eilish — have signed on to a letter calling for Congress to help club and concert venues struggling during the coronavirus pandemic. 

The National Independent Venue Association (NIVA), which is made up of club and concert venue owners, spearheaded the Thursday letter to request federal assistance for independent music venues. 

“We urge you to remember we are the nation that gave the world jazz, country, rock & roll, bluegrass, hip hop, metal, blues, and R&B. Entertainment is America’s largest economic export, with songs written and produced by American artists sung in every place on the globe,” the letter reads.

NIVA has pushed Congress to provide venues with tax relief, unemployment insurance, mortgage and rent forbearance, a business recovery fund and existing debt deferral.

 

ON TAP NEXT WEEK

Monday:

• The House Education and Labor Committee holds a virtual hearing entitled “Inequities Exposed: How COVID-19 Widened Racial Inequities in Education, Health, and the Workforce,” 12 p.m.

Tuesday:

• A House Ways and Means subcommittee holds a hearing entitled “The Child Care Crisis and the Coronavirus Pandemic,” 2 p.m.
• Export-Import Bank President and Chairman Kimberly Reed testifies before the Senate Banking Committee, 2:30 p.m.
• The House Budget Committee holds a virtual hearing entitled “Health and Wealth Inequality in America: How COVID-19 Makes Clear the Need for Change,” 2:30 p.m.

Wednesday:

• The Senate Budget Committee holds a nomination hearing on Derek T. Kan to be deputy director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, 2:30 p.m.

Thursday:

• A House Financial Services subcommittee holds a virtual hearing entitled “Capital Markets and Emergency Lending in the COVID-19 Era,” 12 p.m.

Recap the week with On The Money:

 

• Monday: Surging coronavirus cases fuel lockdown fears | Mnuchin says he’ll have bipartisan talks on PPP oversight | Fed launches emergency business lending program

• Tuesday: Fed chief says full recovery from recession ‘unlikely’ until coronavirus contained | Congress set for fight over expiring unemployment relief | CBO: COVID-19 emergency bills will add $2.4 trillion to deficit

• Wednesday: Powell urges Congress to continue boosted jobless benefits ‘in some form’ | Trade chief denies Bolton claim that Trump asked Xi for election help | Trump administration releases new PPP loan forgiveness forms

• Thursday: Trump says ‘decoupling’ from China on the table | More than 1.5 million file new jobless claims in second week of June | Democrats unveil $1.5 trillion infrastructure plan

IT’S MONDAY!  Welcome to Overnight Energy, The Hill’s roundup of the latest energy and environment news. Please send tips and comments to Rebecca Beitsch at rbeitsch@thehill.com. Follow her on Twitter: @rebeccabeitsch. Reach Rachel Frazin at rfrazin@thehill.com or follow her on Twitter: @RachelFrazin.

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TAKING A LOOK AT LAFAYETTE SQUARE: An internal government watchdog is probing the actions of Park Police earlier this month when law enforcement used chemical agents to disperse protesters in front of the White House.

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“Given the significance of the events, we have already begun collecting and reviewing information,” a spokesperson for the Interior Department’s Office of the Inspector General (OIG) told The Hill in an email on Monday, adding that the review follows requests from three lawmakers as well as Interior Secretary David Bernhardt. 

“After we make an initial determination of which agency had command and control of the law enforcement operations, we will conduct a review of Park Police actions according,” the spokesperson added. 

On June 1, law enforcement used chemical agents to clear protesters who were demonstrating against police brutality in Lafayette Square following the police killing of George Floyd. 

Shortly thereafter, President TrumpDonald John TrumpSouth Korea slams Bolton book as ‘distorting the reality’ of nuclear talks Democrats face tough questions with Bolton Protesters try to bring down statue of Andrew Jackson near White House MORE walked through the park to visit a nearby church, leading to widespread criticism alleging that peaceful protesters had been attacked for a presidential photo opportunity.

Acting Park Police Chief Gregory Monahan said earlier this month that smoke canisters and pepper balls were used to combat “violent” protesters. 

He added that the demonstrators threw bricks, frozen water bottles and “caustic” liquids at officers. However, journalists and protesters at the scene contradicted the claims of violence and Attorney General William BarrBill BarrNadler to subpoena AG Barr over Berman firing GOP rallies around Trump after firing of Manhattan US attorney Trump says Obama may have committed treason MORE described to The Associated Press a meeting about moving protesters away from the area in advance. 

The incident prompted Sen. Ron WydenRonald (Ron) Lee WydenOVERNIGHT ENERGY: Internal watchdog probing Park Police actions toward Lafayette Square protesters | Democrats detail their .5T green infrastructure plan | Green groups challenge Trump water rules rollback Internal watchdog probing Park Police actions toward Lafayette Square protesters IRS used cell phone data to try to track potential suspects: report  MORE (D-Ore.), as well as Reps. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) and Deb HaalandDebra HaalandOVERNIGHT ENERGY: Internal watchdog probing Park Police actions toward Lafayette Square protesters | Democrats detail their .5T green infrastructure plan | Green groups challenge Trump water rules rollback Internal watchdog probing Park Police actions toward Lafayette Square protesters Judge orders Mnuchin to give Native American tribes full stimulus funding MORE (D-N.M.) to ask the OIG to “investigate whether the Park Police’s use of force in Lafayette Park complied with applicable law, regulations and agency guidance.” 

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Read more about the probe here. 

INFRASTRUCTURE TIME: House Democrats on Monday released new details about their $1.5 trillion green infrastructure plan slated to come to a vote as early as next week.

The legislation, announced Thursday, would funnel hundreds of billions of dollars toward transportation and broadband, along with investments in schools and hospitals, with requirements to reduce emissions and clean up industry woven throughout the bill.

“This is the largest tax investment in combating climate change Congress has ever made,” House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Richard NealRichard Edmund NealOn The Money: Small businesses falling behind in economic recovery | Supreme Court rules SEC may seize profits from fraudulent companies | Trump’s steel tariffs survive challenge OVERNIGHT ENERGY: Internal watchdog probing Park Police actions toward Lafayette Square protesters | Democrats detail their .5T green infrastructure plan | Green groups challenge Trump water rules rollback Top Democrats: Trump administration’s plan for PPP disclosure ‘inadequate’ MORE (D-Mass) said when the bill was first announced.

The legislation, much like House Democrats’ latest coronavirus stimulus package, may not be taken up in the Senate, where Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellTrump says he supports another round of stimulus checks NAACP Legal Defense Fund urges Senate to reject GOP police reform bill OVERNIGHT ENERGY: Internal watchdog probing Park Police actions toward Lafayette Square protesters | Democrats detail their .5T green infrastructure plan | Green groups challenge Trump water rules rollback MORE (R-Ky.) has expressed resistance to addressing infrastructure through a pandemic relief measure. 

The bulk of the 2,300 page Moving Forward Act is geared toward transportation, a $500 billion tab that requires states to account for climate change before undertaking projects and meet certain greenhouse gas emission goals when they accept funding.

Beyond building new roads and bridges, the legislation commits significant funding for public transportation, favoring systems that have success reducing congestion and that expand access in low income neighborhoods. It would also shift funds to systems that offer more frequent service — a key metric for recruiting riders — rather than low operating costs.

Mixed in with grants for zero-emissions buses, electrifying the postal service fleet, and allowance of electronic driver’s licenses is funding for university research into implicit bias training for police officers to prevent racial profiling during traffic stops.

The $100 billion broadband portion, spearheaded by Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-S.C.) and Rep. Fred UptonFrederick (Fred) Stephen UptonOVERNIGHT ENERGY: Internal watchdog probing Park Police actions toward Lafayette Square protesters | Democrats detail their .5T green infrastructure plan | Green groups challenge Trump water rules rollback Democrats detail their .5T green infrastructure plan GOP struggles to confront racial issues MORE (R-Mich.), dedicates the bulk of its funding — $80 billion — to bringing broadband access to rural and otherwise underserved areas.

Other grant funding would give money for wifi on school buses, expanding mobile hotspot access through schools and libraries, and funding digital equity programs to ensure people of diverse backgrounds have access to the internet.

The bill also contains a number of direct environmental measures, including efforts to boost electric vehicle charging stations across the country.

And, the legislation has some tax provisions that could help the renewable industry..

The bill would extend two tax credits that can be claimed by renewable energy producers.

It will allow companies that start construction on certain wind, biomass and hydropower facilities by the end of 2025 to claim the production tax credit, which can be claimed by companies that produce electricity from renewable sources.

The legislation would also expand the commercial use of the investment tax credit (ITC), which allows claimants to receive a portion of the cost of installing certain renewable energy facilities as a tax credit. 

And it would extend tax credit for carbon capture and sequestration technology, which takes carbon out of the atmosphere, by two years until the end of 2025. 

The Moving Forward Act would also restrict the transportation of LNG by rail after the Trump administration recently issued a final rule authorizing the bulk transportation of the substance by rail. 

It would require the Transportation Department to rescind any previous authorizations and halt any new ones until the department conducts further safety evaluations.

It would also direct the administration to start a probe into safety and environmental risks of transporting LNG. 

The Democratic bill would also aim to tackle PFAS chemicals, which are often found in water and are known for their persistence in the environment and human body, by creating a grant program to help utilities pay for costs of treating them.

Read more about the big picture provisions here and read more about the tax credits here. 

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WHOA WHOA WOTUS: A coalition of environmental groups sued the Trump administration Monday, challenging a rollback of protections for the nation’s waterways originally put in place under the Obama administration.

The Navigable Waters Protection Rule finalized by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in January limits federal protections for smaller bodies of water, a move critics say risks contamination of larger ones used for drinking water.

The suit, filed by Earthjustice on behalf of Sierra Club, other environmental groups, and a number of tribes, argued the Trump administration erred in removing protections for wetlands and streams that result from rainfall.

The plaintiffs called the rule an “egregious example of putting profits over people. Industrial polluters could potentially be given free rein to dump toxic pollution into nearly 2 million miles of the nation’s streams and 20 million acres of wetlands for which protections would be removed. This must not be allowed to happen.”

The suit, filed on the day the law takes effect, is the third filed by a coalition of environmental groups and follows litigation filed by 17 states. A Colorado-based suit has succeeded in temporarily blocking the rule there.

The latest suit asks the court to strike down the law, arguing it is arbitrary and capricious because it contrasts with previous EPA findings on the connectivity of water as well as existing protections for waterways.

The EPA’s independent Science Advisory Board reviewed the rule when it was first proposed, writing in a draft report that “aspects of the proposed rule are in conflict with established science … and the objectives of the Clean Water Act.”

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“EPA and the Army [Corps of Engineers] developed the rule to protect the navigable waters and their core tributary systems for the entire country while respecting our statutory authority. The Rule strikes the proper balance between state and federal jurisdiction and is designed to end the confusion that has existed for decades,” an EPA official said by email.

Read more about the lawsuit here. 

DO YOU WANT THE GOOD NEWS OR THE BAD NEWS FIRST? The recession caused by the coronavirus could have a bigger impact on emissions than the earlier stay-at-home orders tied to the pandemic, experts say.

Researchers found that emissions dropped by as much as 17 percent worldwide at the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak as travel plans and daily commutes to work and school came to a halt.

But experts say that decline is likely to rebound to pre-coronavirus levels, unless a protracted recession takes hold.

“The economy is dependent on energy,” said Steve Davis, a professor at the University of California, Irvine. “If you’re making stuff, you need heat and electricity to make that stuff. Then you need oil to deliver that stuff. So when the economy slows down, you get less consumption demand as people do less and make less.”

Research has found that emissions dip when there’s an economic downturn, whether it’s the oil crisis of the late 1970s or the financial crisis surrounding the Great Recession.

That recession, from 2007 to 2009, led to a 10 percent drop in U.S. emissions, according to research by Davis and others.

Emissions typically rebound alongside the economy, but a lengthy recovery accompanied by potential changes in consumer behavior could keep emissions lower for a longer period.

“Emissions were down one-sixth, and now they’re only down one-twentieth globally,” said Rob Jackson, an environmental scientist at Stanford University and head of the Global Carbon Project, as emissions levels tick back up in China, the U.S. and elsewhere.

“Now we’re moving quickly back to close to normal. But if close to normal lasts a long time, we could see a sustained drop in emissions that’s meaningful.”

The combination of a faltering U.S. economy, with 13.3 percent unemployment, and fear of the coronavirus could keep tens of millions of people from resuming their typical driving and consumption habits.

“It’s going to be a much deeper recession; it’s going to be larger and there might be structural changes that are difficult to predict,” said Klaus Hubacek, an environmental economist affiliated with the University of Maryland.

The success of teleworking has prompted some companies to embrace the practice, encouraging employees to continue working remotely if it suits them. And the proliferation of online meeting software gives companies the option of reconsidering travel for short meetings.

At the same time people may increasingly turn to their cars as their preferred mode of transportation, spurning public transit and carpooling in an effort to keep their distance from others.

“It’s not just about stay-at-home orders but the lack of comfort people have to integrate into societies,” said Robert Stavins, an environmental economist at Harvard University.

Researchers say they’re not yet sure what the overall effect on emissions will be as people change their habits.

“I don’t know where transportation will end up,” Jackson said. “This recession is different in that most of the emissions decrease came from transportation. We stayed at home in this recession in ways we didn’t in the past.”

“People are not going to jump back on airplanes anywhere near what we used to in the past any time soon,” he said, while noting that it’s too to say whether an increase in car use might offset that.

It’s also tough to sort out how the recession will affect the energy industry.

Oil companies have made major cuts in response to lower fuel prices, while the renewable energy industry has lost more than 600,000 jobs.

“Fossil fuels are getting hit harder than renewables. They’re both getting hit, but fossil fuels are getting hit harder,” said Glen Peters, research director at the Center for International Climate Research.

“If a few more fossil fuel companies fall off the cliff while renewable companies don’t,” the clean energy sector could be in a stronger position going forward, he said.

Read more about how economic changes could impact emissions here. 

OUTSIDE THE BELTWAY:

3 Years and $3 Trillion Could Shift the Climate Change Narrative, Bloomberg reports

When It Comes To Water Rights, This Once-A-Decade List Details Who Will ‘Use It Or Lose It,’ KUNC reports

Enbridge reports ‘significant damage’ on Line 5 pipeline to Michigan, MLive reports

Indigenous peoples say US demand for clean energy destroying Canada’s environment, The Guardian reports

ICYMI: Stories from Monday and the weekend…

EPA to reopen DC headquarters after coronavirus closure

Natural Resources Democrats again rebuff Republican complaints about virtual meetings

Arctic town records highest temperature ever

Green groups challenge Trump water rollback

Recession likely to hinder rebounding emissions levels

Democrats detail their $1.5T green infrastructure plan

Democrats eye tax credit assistance for renewables in infrastructure bill

Internal watchdog probing Park Police actions toward Lafayette Square protesters

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President TrumpDonald John TrumpProtesters tear down, burn statue of Confederate general in DC US attorney in NYC who spearheaded probes of Trump allies refuses to leave as DOJ pushes ouster Trump to host 4th of July event despite pleas from lawmakers to cancel MORE’s new head of the U.S. Agency for Global Media is coming under fire from Democrats and conservatives alike following a rash of high-level dismissals at the international broadcasts it oversees.

Michael Pack, a conservative filmmaker who took over as CEO of the agency this week, is facing pushback from congressional Democrats on the committees with oversight of the U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM).

The criticism on the right has come from conservative commentators and foreign policy analysts, including those who supported his nomination two years earlier and are seen as Trump loyalists.

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Critics fear Pack will jeopardize the independence of the broadcast networks, which are charged with objectively reporting about the U.S. and its foreign policy to an international audience of 350 million people and in 61 languages.

David Ensor, who was director of USAGM’s Voice of America from 2011 to 2015, said Pack has the authority to replace the staff, but that the sweep of firings is out of the ordinary for positions that are apolitical.

“It’s a little bit surprising that the administration’s guy has decided to get rid of absolutely everybody in charge of one of the news organizations,” he said. “But certainly he’s within his rights to do so.”

On Wednesday, he dismissed the senior editors for news outlets broadcasting in Europe, the Middle East and Asia, as well as the head of an internet freedom grantee organization.

Voice of America (VOA) Director Amanda Bennett and Deputy Director Sandy Sugawara resigned on Monday ahead of Pack’s first day on the job.

VOA is the agency’s flagship broadcast.

The Democratic chairs of the House Appropriations and Foreign Affairs committees said they were “outraged” to learn of Pack’s dismissals and staff appointments.

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The House chairs, Rep. Nita LoweyNita Sue LoweyThe Hill’s Campaign Report: Supreme Court ignites an election year battle over immigration Human Rights Campaign endorses Mondaire Jones in race to replace Nita Lowey in NY Democrats accuse SBA of stonewalling GAO’s attempts to oversee lending program MORE (D-N.Y.) of the Appropriations committee, and Rep. Eliot EngelEliot Lance EngelJamaal Bowman raises M, launches 0,000 ad buy ahead of New York primary Jamaal Bowman calls for Juneteenth to be made a holiday OVERNIGHT DEFENSE: Top Democrats introduce bill to stop Trump’s Germany withdrawal | Esper announces internal review on diversity in military | Top foreign policy Pentagon official resigns after White House passes on nomination MORE (D-N.Y.) of the foreign affairs committee, are demanding Pack provide documents related to the firings, and criticized the CEO for putting his chief of staff on the advisory board of each broadcast.

“That Mr. Pack took this drastic measure in his first week on the job is shocking, and we have deep concerns that he takes the helm of a critical agency with the intent to prioritize the Trump administration’s political whims over protecting and promoting independent reporting, which is a pillar of freedom and democracy,” the House Democrats wrote.

Sen. Bob MenendezRobert (Bob) MenendezLighthizer denies Bolton claim that Trump asked Xi for election help GOP’s Obama-era probes fuel Senate angst Government watchdog: ‘No evidence’ Pompeo violated Hatch Act with Kansas trips MORE (D-N.J.), ranking member on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said Pack’s purge of staff risks compromising the independent broadcast outlets.

“As feared, Michael Pack has confirmed he is on a political mission to destroy the USAGM’s independence and undermine its historic role,” Menendez said in a statement. “This latest attack is sadly the latest – but not the last – in the Trump Administration’s efforts to transform U.S. institutions rooted in the principles of democracy into tools for the President’s own personal agenda.”

Menendez had criticized Pack’s confirmation by the Senate even though he was under investigation for the misuse of funds, allegedly transferring money from his nonprofit organization Public Media Lab to his for-profit film company.

Menendez revealed in May that Pack was under investigation ahead of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee vote on whether to advance his nomination. Pack’s nomination was advanced in a 12 – 10 vote along party lines.

He was then confirmed by the Senate in a 53-38 vote. Sen. Joe ManchinJoseph (Joe) ManchinSchumer faces tough choice on police reform Overnight Energy: Senate passes major lands conservation bill | Mnuchin ordered to give Native American tribes full stimulus funding | Key Republican jeopardizes Trump consumer safety nominee Senate passes major lands conservation bill MORE of West Virginia was the only Democrat to vote for him.

Trump had resubmitted Pack’s nomination in February after it expired from the previous Congress. Last month Trump said at a Senate GOP lunch that Pack’s nomination was moving too slowly through the confirmation process.

Menendez said at the time that Pack’s confirmation had been delayed for eight months because he “refused” to provide documents related to his non-profit and for-profit ventures.

The USAGM did not return a request for comment on the investigation into Pack.

The conservative backlash, meanwhile, has been more focused on the ousting of the director of the Middle East Broadcasting Networks, Alberto Fernandez, and the head of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Jamie Fly.

Fly, who is also a senior fellow with the German Marshall Fund, a think tank that promotes cooperation between North America and Europe, was a former adviser to Sen. Marco RubioMarco Antonio RubioRepublicans brush off Bolton’s bombshells Roberts sparks backlash from conservative senators with DACA ruling Rubio to introduce bill allowing NCAA athletes to make money from name, likeness MORE (R-Fla.).

Fernandez, who joined the Middle East Broadcasting Networks in 2017, is a former U.S. ambassador and career Foreign Service officer with multiple tours in the Middle East.

Fernandez’s dismissal was criticized by David Reaobi, a national security analyst and a former colleague of Pack at the conservative think-tank the Claremont Institute.

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Reaobi wrote on Twitter that he had advised Pack to keep Fernandez while clearing the agency of “anti-American leftwing agitprop.”

“Michael Pack gets confirmed by the Senate and, rather than take stock and talk to people who know what’s happening, he fired everybody. Including [Alberto Fernandez]. Shameful,” Reaobi tweeted. “I sent Pack an email indicating my extreme disappointment.”

Sebastian GorkaSebastian Lukacs GorkaAppeals court blocks White House from suspending reporter Sunday shows preview: As states loosen social distancing restrictions, lawmakers address dwindling state budgets FBI director in ‘hot seat’ as GOP demands reforms MORE, a former Trump adviser in the White House and conservative radio host, supported Reaobi’s tweet, writing on the platform that “Ambassador Fernandez was the greatest asset America had in foreign broadcasting.”

Gorka is reportedly under consideration for a USAGM post.

Mark Dubowitz, head of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a think tank supportive of the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign on Iran, said both Fernandez and Fly’s dismissals were a “poor decision.”

Pack, in a statement released Thursday, defended the firings.

“Every action I carried out was – and every action I will carry out will be – geared toward rebuilding the USAGM’s reputation, boosting morale, and improving content,” he said.  

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In an introductory email to staff, Pack said he has three goals for the agency – to improve morale; “examine some of the problems that have surfaced in the media in recent years,” adding he wants to make sure there are no issues “getting in the way of your ability to report the news”; and make more “effective” the impact of the broadcasting networks.

“Beyond these three goals, I am fully committed to honoring VOA’s charter, the missions of the grantees, and the independence of our heroic journalists around the world,” he wrote.

The VOA charter, a public law signed in 1976, is designed to protect the integrity of the organization and define its mission.

“Voice of America is an organization that tries to do, is supposed to do and it has a legal charter requiring it to do truthful journalism,” said Ensor, the former VOA director. “It also has a mandate to report about America to the world.”

Pack’s critics worry that he’s further influenced by his conservative ties, in particular his connections to Steve BannonStephen (Steve) Kevin BannonMueller report re-released with fewer redactions after legal battle Trump appointee ousts multiple officials within US media agency: reports House Democrat warns of potential staff purge at US media agency MORE, the former senior White House adviser and former executive director of the conservative media site Breitbart News.

“There’s going to now be, as there has been throughout much of VOA’s existence, a big debate to what extent will the new team be wanting to try to turn VOA into more of a propaganda organization less of a journalistic organization,” Ensor said.

“I hope that he’s going to keep the journalism strong, because that is what has built audiences and credibility for Voice of America.”

Updated at 8:41 a.m. Jordain Carney contributed.

Happy Monday and welcome back to On The Money. I’m Sylvan Lane, and here’s your nightly guide to everything affecting your bills, bank account and bottom line.

See something I missed? Let me know at slane@thehill.com or tweet me @SylvanLane. And if you like your newsletter, you can subscribe to it here: http://bit.ly/1NxxW2N.

Write us with tips, suggestions and news: slane@thehill.com, njagoda@thehill.com and nelis@thehill.com. Follow us on Twitter: @SylvanLane, @NJagoda and @NivElis.

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THE BIG DEAL—Small businesses falling behind in economic recovery: An unprecedented flood of federal support may have helped larger companies stay afloat, but small businesses and poor households continue to face severe economic pain, suggesting the recovery from the coronavirus-fueled recession will be slow and uneven. 

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The federal government has deployed trillions of dollars in economic rescue through direct financial aid approved by Congress and emergency loans and asset purchases by the Federal Reserve. The record-shattering price tag of the coronavirus recession response is widely credited for keeping financial markets stable and halting the free fall of the broader economy.

But many smaller firms — and the typically low-wage workers who depend on them — have fallen through the cracks despite federal programs intended to help them, prompting concerns from policymakers that they will be left behind in any economic recovery. I explain why here.

LEADING THE DAY

Supreme Court rules SEC may seize profits from fraudulent companies: The Supreme Court on Monday upheld the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) practice of seeking to seize profits obtained illegally from fraudulent companies.

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In a 8-1 decision, the justices ruled that the SEC can force defendants in court to hand over their net profits obtained from wrongdoing as restitution to any victims who were defrauded.

Still, the decision, authored by Justice Sonia SotomayorSonia SotomayorOn The Money: Small businesses falling behind in economic recovery | Supreme Court rules SEC may seize profits from fraudulent companies | Trump’s steel tariffs survive challenge The Hill’s 12:30 Report: Fallout from Trump’s weekend rally Supreme Court rules SEC may seize profits from fraudulent companies MORE, limits the SEC’s authority to seize such profits, ruling that the agency can’t seek more than the amount of net income generated through a fraudulent scheme and should use the funds to provide relief for victims.

The Hill’s Harper Neidig breaks down the decision here.

Trump’s steel tariffs survive challenge: The Supreme Court also on Monday declined to take up a case challenging President TrumpDonald John TrumpSouth Korea slams Bolton book as ‘distorting the reality’ of nuclear talks Democrats face tough questions with Bolton Protesters try to bring down statue of Andrew Jackson near White House MORE‘s 25 percent tariffs on imported steel products, meaning they will remain in effect.

• The court denied a petition from the American Institute for International Steel (AIIS), a trade association representing steel importers and users of imported steel products.
• Trump in 2018 imposed a tariff of 25 percent on steel imports, as well as a 10 percent tariff on aluminum imports. 
• The tariffs were imposed under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which allows the president to impose tariffs for national security purposes.

The AIIS argued in its petition to the Supreme Court that the steel tariffs are invalid because Section 232 “unconstitutionally delegates legislative power to the President.” But the Trump administration argued that the Supreme Court rejected a similar challenge to Section 232 in a 1976 opinion.

Top Democrats: Trump administration’s plan for PPP disclosure ‘inadequate‘ Three House Democratic committee chairs on Monday criticized the Trump administration’s announcement that it will release certain information about Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan recipients, saying that the planned disclosures are insufficient.

“With this announcement, Treasury and [the Small Business Administration] have agreed to a minimum level of transparency, but still fall short of taxpayers’ expectations,” House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Richard NealRichard Edmund NealOn The Money: Small businesses falling behind in economic recovery | Supreme Court rules SEC may seize profits from fraudulent companies | Trump’s steel tariffs survive challenge OVERNIGHT ENERGY: Internal watchdog probing Park Police actions toward Lafayette Square protesters | Democrats detail their .5T green infrastructure plan | Green groups challenge Trump water rules rollback Top Democrats: Trump administration’s plan for PPP disclosure ‘inadequate’ MORE (D-Mass.), Financial Services Committee Chairwoman Maxine WatersMaxine Moore WatersOn The Money: Small businesses falling behind in economic recovery | Supreme Court rules SEC may seize profits from fraudulent companies | Trump’s steel tariffs survive challenge Top Democrats: Trump administration’s plan for PPP disclosure ‘inadequate’ Powell urges Congress to continue boosted jobless benefits ‘in some form’ MORE (D-Calif.) and Small Business Committee Chairwoman Nydia Velázquez (D-N.Y.) said in a joint statement.

• Treasury and the Small Business Administration (SBA) announced Friday that they will release information about the business names, locations, industries, business types and demographic data of recipients of PPP loans of at least $150,000. The disclosure will reveal a range for the loan amount doled out to recipients.
• For loans less than $150,000, the SBA will release totals aggregated by industry, ZIP code, industry, business type and demographic characteristics.

The Hill’s Naomi Jagoda has more here.

GOOD TO KNOW

• President Trump on Monday signed an executive order to suspend the issuance of certain temporary worker visas through the end of 2020, cracking down further on immigration after signing a more narrow measure in April.
• Republicans are betting on the economy as they try to hold on to the Senate and the White House in November.
• Senate Minority Leader Charles SchumerChuck SchumerGOP lawmakers voice support for Israeli plan to annex areas in West Bank The Hill’s Coronavirus Report: Rep. Mark Takano says Congress must extend worker benefits expiring in July; WHO reports record spike in global cases UPDATE: Trump denies he slowed down coronavirus testing MORE (D-N.Y.) said on Monday that he will not return a blue slip if the administration nominates Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Jay Clayton to be the next U.S. attorney for Manhattan.
• The Supreme Court on Monday declined to take up a technology company’s challenge to IRS regulations issued in 2003, letting stand a lower court’s ruling that will require companies to pay billions of dollars more in taxes.
• Home sales in the U.S. have fallen to their lowest level in nearly 10 years.
• Swiss bank UBS Group AG said Monday that as much as one-third of its staff could work from home permanently after the coronavirus pandemic eases.

U.S. fighter jets for the second time this week intercepted two formations of Russian military aircraft off the coast of Alaska, North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) said in a Wednesday statement.

F-22 Raptors, backed by KC-135 aerial refueling tankers and an E-3 early warning aircraft, intercepted two Russian bomber formations in the Alaskan Air Defense Identification Zone Tuesday night, according to NORAD.

The first formation consisted of two Russian Tu-95 bombers, two Su-35 fighter jets and an A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft, while the second had two bombers and an A-50. Both came within 32 nautical miles of the Alaskan coast but did not enter U.S. airspace, NORAD said.

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Moscow’s aircraft are increasingly flying closer to U.S. airspace, which extends 12 nautical miles off American shores.

The two Russian formations on Tuesday were identical to those that came close to the Alaskan coast last week. In that instance, the formations came within 20 nautical miles of Alaskan shores, the closest in some time.

In March and again in April, the U.S. military also intercepted Russian aircraft that got within 50 nautical miles off the coast.

“For the eighth time this year, Russian military aircraft have penetrated our Canadian or Alaskan Air Defense Identification Zones and each and every time NORAD forces were ready to meet this challenge,” NORAD commander Gen. Terrence O’Shaughnessy said in the statement.

“Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, NORAD constantly monitors the northern approaches to our nations and our operations make it clear that we will conduct homeland defense efforts 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year.”

The rising number of COVID-19 cases in states across the country is due in large part to more young people contracting the virus, raising alarms among public health officials.

The spikes suggest young adults are both more likely to hold front-line service jobs that put them at risk and more likely to ignore some of the social distancing practices advised by health experts.

The most troubling hot spots are now concentrated in Sun Belt states such as Arizona, California, Florida, North Carolina and Texas. All five of those states have reported more than 1,000 new cases per day this week, making them the only five states to break the four-digit barrier during that period.

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Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) said the majority of new cases in his state are coming from residents who are under 30 years old. He said many of the cases are tied to “bar-type settings” where people have been congregating since Memorial Day weekend.

“What we’re seeing there is that people of that age group, they’re not following these appropriate best health and safety practices,” Abbott said in an interview this week with KLBK, a McAllen television station. “They’re not wearing face masks. They’re not sanitizing their hands. They’re not maintaining the safe distancing practices. And as a result, they are contracting COVID-19 at a record pace in the state of Texas.”

In California, 44 percent of recent coronavirus cases occurred in those under the age of 35, according to a study by George Lemp, director of the University of California’s HIV/AIDS Research Program.

California officials said they have seen an increasing number of younger people contracting the virus but that it was likely a function of a rising number of diagnostic tests administered to those who show few if any symptoms.

“In the first months of the outbreak, when testing was more limited, we were largely testing individuals who were most vulnerable, including those who were hospitalized or had arrived at an emergency room with severe symptoms as well as high-risk individuals with symptoms in congregate facilities where an outbreak might have been occurring,” said Ali Bay, a spokeswoman for the state health department. 

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“We have significantly expanded the availability of testing to cover a broader set of communities and environments and are now seeing a lot of younger people get tested, including people who are in higher risk work environments, others who are returning to non-essential jobs, and people who want to know their status,” she added. 

Bay also pointed to statistics showing that the number of hospitalizations remains stable and that the percentage of tests coming back positive has dropped.

Clusters of new cases among young people have emerged around the University of Central Florida in Orlando and in Mobile County, Ala. Other cases have been tied to a party in Uinta County, Wyo., and fraternity parties around the University of Mississippi in Oxford. 

Figures compiled by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show that about 40 percent of the coronavirus cases confirmed since early March have been among people between the ages of 18 and 49, the narrowest range their data covers. The percentage of younger people as a share of the total population who have tested positive has steadily risen, from 32 percent in the first week of March to more than half over the past week. 

“We know that younger people are less likely to show symptoms — so earlier on when testing was only happening if you had symptoms, the skew looked to be toward older people primarily getting COVID-19, which was likely not the case. We just were not testing enough,” said Abraar Karan, an internist at Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School. “Countries that were testing everyone already showed a skew toward younger people driving the epidemic months ago.”

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Karan pointed to studies from Japan that showed people between the ages of 20 and 39 made up a majority of coronavirus cases. He said younger people are more likely to venture out after months in lockdown, in part because they do not think they are at risk as much as older people are.

“Younger people are more likely to be back out and about, probably because they perceive their personal risk to be less than older people do. They are likely to have more person-contacts in a day as well by virtue of being more socially and economically active. They are also more likely to be attending certain types of high risk venues, such as bars and clubs,” he said in an email.

Others said younger workers are also more likely to venture out for economic reasons. They are more likely to have jobs in the service industry, putting them at risk of contracting the virus through contacts with restaurant, convenience store and grocery store patrons. 

“Rent, car payments, grocery bills didn’t really slow down during the quarantine, and hourly employees’ wallets are empty,” said Nita Bharti, a biologist at the Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics at Penn State University. “The government’s inadequate economic relief response made quarantine wholly unsustainable for the people who most needed support during the shutdowns.” 

The increasing number of younger people contracting the virus has not led to a spike in younger people in the hospital or dying. Research shows the virus is still much more likely to have the worst outcomes for older people and those who have underlying conditions.

But experts are concerned that those who contract the virus can put others at risk, either fellow young people or parents, grandparents and others who might face more severe consequences.

While more testing does lead to more positive tests, an increase in the number of people who are tested does not completely account for the total rise in confirmed cases, according to Marta Wosinska, deputy director of policy at the Duke-Margolis Center for Health Policy. 

That suggests the virus continues to spread at faster rates in some places. 

“You do expect that if you do more testing you might find more cases, but that’s actually not the case in most states here,” Wosinska said. “In states like Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona, you do see an increase in testing, but you see the cases rising at a much faster rate.”

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